Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 17°C on March 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7ebc6c9c235ee911c0aa7a90282cc8bafa2e4516a9c6c52617c536be0fe26f30
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,506
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,434
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,506 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x343f…bb4dbacked Yes | 13c | 938.54$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.33 | 135 | 33.3%45 W · 90 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe32…a0e7backed Yes | 55c | 261.93$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 65 | 29.2%19 W · 46 L | -9.3wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 15c | 226.64$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.74 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb14…0da7backed Yes | 10c | 164.28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 249 | 21.3%53 W · 196 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c9f…8e7dbacked Yes | 9c | 150$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 216 | 31%67 W · 149 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 33c | 139.65$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.51 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Yes | 9c | 135.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 336 | 20.2%68 W · 268 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 13c | 109.93$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.88 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50ad…1588backed No | 68c | 99.98$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.49 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 27c | 63.68$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 33c | 60.29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.45 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95b2…49aabacked Yes | 69c | 46.8$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.24 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 42.81$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.97 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 77c | 39.08$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.09 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeba4…f461backed Yes | 60c | 36.45$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc9…57a9backed No | 70c | 34.87$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.61 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +50.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe01f…ff34backed Yes | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c1…1bebbacked Yes | 60c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 276 | 48.6%134 W · 142 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa9…a6c9backed Yes | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed No | 71c | 28.16$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.16 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x14ea…998bbacked No | 36c | 28$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.92 | 159 | 37.7%60 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x150a…b6b1backed No | 75c | 23.08$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.77 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -8.7wins | -0.23per pick | 47cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xb1b8…2d98backed No | 66c | 21.4$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.28 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 347 | 48.7%169 W · 178 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd817…b8e7backed Yes | 60c | 17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 63c | 16.66$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.16 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 17°C on March 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 15°C on March 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 16°C on March 30?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 18°C on March 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 19°C on March 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 20°C or higher on March 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.