Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 21°C on April 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7edbe866ae0de1267081f59e70325ec02648a7a7955ddce4fe1d750fe24a5e38
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,813
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,891
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,813 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc57a…ee16backed No | 40c | 1,483$599 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.16 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.15per pick | 46cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed No | 14c | 1,326$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.69 | 353 | 23.2%82 W · 271 L | -16.4wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x309c…09b5backed No | 80c | 818.23$651 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650.68 | 288 | 39.9%115 W · 173 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x488c…8c1cbacked Yes | 31c | 438.57$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.86 | 375 | 32.8%123 W · 252 L | +36.4wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +109.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed Yes | 25c | 379.13$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.78 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 59c | 337.98$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.41 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17f0…20febacked No | 5c | 253$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 151 | 6.6%10 W · 141 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 7c | 207.82$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.91 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 47c | 204.33$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.81 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b1…ab63backed Yes | 37c | 185.19$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.94 | 385 | 47.5%183 W · 202 L | +16.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 11c | 182.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.76 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 30c | 170.43$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.38 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc423…2ccdbacked Yes | 31c | 137.08$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.17 | 524 | 44.1%231 W · 293 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcab2…651cbacked Yes | 57c | 135.22$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.69 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.31per pick | 49cpaid | +74.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 41c | 130.67$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.09 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 21c | 129.62$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.84 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 19c | 124$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.7 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 59c | 116.54$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.65 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…253abacked Yes | 64c | 110.61$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.03 | 151 | 52.3%79 W · 72 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8f…de8abacked Yes | 19c | 106$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.98 | 166 | 26.5%44 W · 122 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5239…4134backed Yes | 35c | 100.84$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.26 | 84 | 66.7%56 W · 28 L | +9.7wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +36%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2779…5e59backed Yes | 24c | 100.07$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.54 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 63c | 88.92$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.62 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 58c | 65.82$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.21 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb1…e80cbacked Yes | 79c | 64.66$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.81 | 99 | 65.7%65 W · 34 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb99…341cbacked No | 76c | 64.5$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.78 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 74cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 64$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd802…d766backed No | 78c | 62.49$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.91 | 306 | 64.1%196 W · 110 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed Yes | 73c | 59.02$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.94 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x97ad…9a0dbacked Yes | 69c | 50.75$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.85 | 234 | 63.7%149 W · 85 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c51…7c37backed Yes | 40c | 50.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.2 | 59 | 33.9%20 W · 39 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa493…1b55backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 269 | 33.1%89 W · 180 L | +21.8wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea74…2fadbacked No | 70c | 49.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.99 | 120 | 68.3%82 W · 38 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 20c | 49$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa081…e7a0backed No | 66c | 44.87$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.83 | 389 | 61.7%240 W · 149 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 66c | 41.41$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.19 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 59c | 33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c64…be43backed No | 73c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 144 | 61.8%89 W · 55 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8162…1a48backed Yes | 70c | 28.95$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.63 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 73c | 27.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.44 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 45c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bd…e48fbacked No | 66c | 22.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 209 | 28.7%60 W · 149 L | -45.3wins | -0.22per pick | 50cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 28-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x9410…9160backed No | 77c | 18.54$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.34 | 420 | 49%206 W · 214 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb5…b230backed No | 79c | 14.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 21°C on April 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 19°C on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 20°C on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 22°C on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 23°C on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 24°C on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on April 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.