Bundesliga · resolved market
FC Augsburg vs. Bayer Leverkusen: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7edd74aa674282631bdbaff22562d1d399a87bfb26c6f2527fa28bb8bf618ccd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,619
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,684
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,619 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 69c | 9,965$6,874 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,091.07 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 26c | 7,407$1,962 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,961.63 | 536 | 45.9%246 W · 290 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 35c | 1,889$652 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$651.66 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Over | 36c | 1,500$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540 | 277 | 26.4%73 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16bd…ed47backed Under | 50c | 840$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d9d…e6c3backed Under | 68c | 736.37$501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.64 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf763…414fbacked Over | 36c | 485.56$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.8 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.14per pick | 40cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Over | 36c | 300$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 227 | 47.1%107 W · 120 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 46c | 233.19$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.25 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8208…1742backed Under | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.20per pick | 50cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb04…3ce1backed Under | 66c | 151.52$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.52 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -3.0wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Under | 65c | 119.45$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.22 | 195 | 44.6%87 W · 108 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4417…01eebacked Over | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe903…f8e1backed Over | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb0…8826backed Over | 49c | 81.63$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +5.0wins | +0.16per pick | 45cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 54c | 47.73$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.75 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7795…1db8backed Under | 68c | 44.12$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.12 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe3…5470backed Under | 68c | 36.76$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa66f…f5a3backed Over | 36c | 28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 149 | 42.3%63 W · 86 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a5c…b3f2backed Under | 72c | 23.75$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.69 | 101 | 50.5%51 W · 50 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5779…168dbacked Over | 50c | 20.41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Augsburg vs. Bayer Leverkusen: O/U 3.5this page
- FC Augsburg vs. Bayer Leverkusen: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- FC Augsburg vs. Bayer Leverkusen: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Augsburg vs. Bayer Leverkusen: O/U 2.5Under won
- Spread: Bayer Leverkusen (-1.5)FC Augsburg won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.