Bundesliga · resolved market
FC Augsburg vs. Bayer Leverkusen: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xee6c29396812b9944f19f7af97c9a645e80cab4b547327a9877096a99b545a04
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,701
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,094
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,701 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 40c | 13,528$5,391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,136.37 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6ee…697bbacked Over | 61c | 12,255$7,473 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,473.01 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -4.8wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb230…4193backed Under | 39c | 6,651$2,594 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,057.09 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 58c | 5,000$2,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,900 | 332 | 44.6%148 W · 184 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 46c | 4,653$2,130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,522.86 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5677…2ce9backed Over | 69c | 2,200$1,518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,518 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.14per pick | 61cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 51c | 1,789$910 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$910.17 | 536 | 45.9%246 W · 290 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d9d…e6c3backed Under | 31c | 1,195$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$819.04 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 14c | 1,054$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$907.99 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Over | 61c | 819.67$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 187 | 59.4%111 W · 76 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Under | 43c | 699$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$398.43 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa9…72dbbacked Over | 57c | 525$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.25 | 39 | 66.7%26 W · 13 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Over | 59c | 500$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295 | 227 | 47.1%107 W · 120 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Under | 43c | 483.2$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.64 | 195 | 44.6%87 W · 108 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 57c | 413$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.35 | 63 | 47.6%30 W · 33 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 44c | 410.86$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.72 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Under | 42c | 400$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…ad8dbacked Over | 61c | 327.87$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 110 | 60%66 W · 44 L | +13.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +26%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ab…f282backed Over | 59c | 225.93$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.3 | 98 | 54.1%53 W · 45 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 40c | 191$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.03 | 110 | 40.9%45 W · 65 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05e3…4b87backed Over | 57c | 180$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.6 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc3…0956backed Over | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa35f…b58fbacked Over | 61c | 162.29$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 106 | 42.5%45 W · 61 L | +6.1wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Over | 61c | 147.54$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 137 | 54%74 W · 63 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37c2…a5b8backed Over | 61c | 146$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc049…48abbacked Over | 58c | 145.71$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.51 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | +4.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4417…01eebacked Over | 72c | 140$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.8 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8d…31eabacked Over | 61c | 101.64$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 345 | 47.5%164 W · 181 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72a2…e265backed Over | 61c | 100$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.22per pick | 60cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7957…ed88backed Over | 61c | 100$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6878…bec2backed Under | 41c | 97.93$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.93 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd448…f700backed Under | 44c | 90.48$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +126.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f56…f93cbacked Over | 58c | 86.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.04 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 47cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb0…8826backed Over | 49c | 81.63$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +5.0wins | +0.16per pick | 45cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Over | 22c | 80$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 98 | 46.9%46 W · 52 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xecc6…a1c4backed Over | 56c | 71.45$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf430…675abacked Over | 73c | 60$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.8 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Over | 57c | 60$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 85 | 51.8%44 W · 41 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfde8…c52fbacked Over | 27c | 55.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.21per pick | 42cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc0d…79cbbacked Over | 58c | 51.72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Over | 52c | 39.53$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.66 | 165 | 42.4%70 W · 95 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…ab7dbacked Over | 77c | 39.05$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.04 | 108 | 63%68 W · 40 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe026…0404backed Over | 61c | 37.52$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.89 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | -5.9wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…1379backed Under | 41c | 36.93$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe333…cf5fbacked Over | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a5c…b3f2backed Under | 43c | 31.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.37 | 101 | 50.5%51 W · 50 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed Under | 41c | 25.64$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.13 | 88 | 52.3%46 W · 42 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x423d…c621backed Over | 61c | 24.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebd5…6600backed Over | 59c | 21.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe398…ee2ebacked Over | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 36 | 88.9%32 W · 4 L | +8.1wins | +0.23per pick | 66cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x74fa…2003backed Over | 79c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Augsburg vs. Bayer Leverkusen: O/U 2.5this page
- FC Augsburg vs. Bayer Leverkusen: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- FC Augsburg vs. Bayer Leverkusen: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Augsburg vs. Bayer Leverkusen: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: Bayer Leverkusen (-1.5)FC Augsburg won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.