UFC · resolved market
Fight to Go the Distance?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7f0303aaaac4dc664094c3bdd296fefdd5adb2521d2dd187ea031ba9f04cbd6d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,704
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,872
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,704 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbe56…593abacked Yes | 8c | 1,500$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79fb…c230backed Yes | 8c | 1,500$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.24per pick | 5cpaid | +515.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…5e8abacked Yes | 1c | 899.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 25 | 0%0 W · 25 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5170…b032backed Yes | 74c | 770.97$571 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadc0…1934backed No | 26c | 770.97$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$570.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.74per pick | 26cpaid | +284.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7b8…e32bbacked Yes | 6c | 500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x417e…85e4backed Yes | 6c | 400$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x661d…4dc6backed No | 16c | 329.82$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.44 | 274 | 48.2%132 W · 142 L | +12.7wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6079…4943backed No | 27c | 327.52$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.73per pick | 27cpaid | +270.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f4b…2b52backed Yes | 73c | 327.52$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed Yes | 78c | 250$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 339 | 48.1%163 W · 176 L | -16.2wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…5878backed No | 22c | 238$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.64 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +19%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe710…d907backed No | 26c | 205.32$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.74per pick | 26cpaid | +284.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ac…6755backed Yes | 74c | 205.32$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed No | 48c | 73.51$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.33 | 92 | 50%46 W · 46 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…6993backed No | 53c | 65.65$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.16 | 235 | 37%87 W · 148 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed No | 19c | 63.46$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.4 | 92 | 56.5%52 W · 40 L | +6.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Yes | 77c | 52$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.2 | 88 | 48.9%43 W · 45 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4448…8756backed No | 22c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +99.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60a5…a97fbacked Yes | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 61cpaid | -53%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f6e…6a74backed Yes | 76c | 23.68$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Fight to Go the Distance?this page
- O/U 1.5 RoundsUnder won
- O/U 2.5 RoundsUnder won
- UFC Fight Night: Alexa Grasso vs. Maycee Barber (Women's Flyweight, Main Card)Alexa Grasso won
- Will Alexa Grasso win by KO or TKO?Yes won
- Will the fight be won by submission?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.