Lol · resolved market
Game Handicap: TOS (-1.5) vs Cães de Água (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7f0dbd8a443b3fdf3d5c7be92fd436a499d85f6310fdff71233f8fda8870649d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cães de Águaof The Otter Side, Cães de Água
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,036
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,188
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,036 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x58f8…dc70backed The Otter Side | 71c | 7,180$5,117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,117.27 | 403 | 70.2%283 W · 120 L | +31.3wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb9b4…75a0backed Cães de Água | 29c | 6,390$1,853 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,536.65 | 92 | 45.7%42 W · 50 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked The Otter Side | 77c | 1,385$1,062 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,062.15 | 1,224 | 48.3%591 W · 633 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdad…9eaebacked Cães de Água | 23c | 523.21$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$403.21 | 123 | 33.3%41 W · 82 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -18%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e7c…164dbacked Cães de Água | 21c | 341$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.44 | 447 | 43.6%195 W · 252 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c2…9b8dbacked Cães de Água | 29c | 327.59$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.59 | 592 | 48.3%286 W · 306 L | +15.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x520e…d75abacked Cães de Água | 23c | 203$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.31 | 288 | 37.5%108 W · 180 L | -16.7wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…1a20backed Cães de Água | 25c | 180$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1484…c91dbacked Cães de Água | 25c | 172$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd93b…cd48backed Cães de Água | 25c | 169.47$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.47 | 329 | 39.8%131 W · 198 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d0e…8d7dbacked Cães de Água | 25c | 126$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.5 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba05…f8c0backed Cães de Água | 29c | 110.34$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.34 | 541 | 29.9%162 W · 379 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked Cães de Água | 23c | 100$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.2 | 1,241 | 34.7%431 W · 810 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7462…3ac3backed The Otter Side | 54c | 57.37$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.98 | 1,007 | 47.9%482 W · 525 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0609…b093backed Cães de Água | 46c | 57.37$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.98 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +82.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed The Otter Side | 77c | 33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.38 | 1,606 | 17.5%281 W · 1,325 L | -245.0wins | -0.15per pick | 33cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked The Otter Side | 77c | 18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 39 | 69.2%27 W · 12 L | +3.9wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Game Handicap: TOS (-1.5) vs Cães de Água (+1.5)this page
- LoL: The Otter Side vs Cães de Água (BO3) - LPLOL PlayoffsThe Otter Side won
- LoL: The Otter Side vs Cães de Água - Game 1 WinnerThe Otter Side won
- LoL: The Otter Side vs Cães de Água - Game 2 WinnerCães de Água won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.