Chess · resolved market
Will Javokhir Sindarov win on 2026-04-04 at FIDE Candidates 2026 Open?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7f3656f0c7a9966942c0101bec4918fc00e48f009077d49bd6b0ad45202ab5b9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Chessevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,782
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,367
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,782 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Chess is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Chess | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9267…0f9abacked No | 74c | 7,705$5,705 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,705.49 | 92 | 47.8%44 W · 48 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ad3…fb0fbacked Yes | 31c | 5,983$1,834 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,148.4 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d58…1aeabacked Yes | 25c | 4,108$1,017 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,091.55 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +45.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed No | 64c | 2,197$1,406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,406.04 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c2…3048backed No | 63c | 581.08$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.08 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -3.1wins | -0.12per pick | 36cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x705d…f3a9backed No | 35c | 569.14$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.5 | 123 | 13%16 W · 107 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -24%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaec3…22dfbacked Yes | 37c | 520.11$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.67 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 76c | 378$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 66c | 274.52$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.14 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 55cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad3…bbccbacked No | 79c | 166.87$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.39 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36bf…2864backed No | 37c | 139.98$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 116 | 31%36 W · 80 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a74…d69ebacked Yes | 48c | 139.66$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +107.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8615…2de1backed Yes | 65c | 116.65$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.71 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7667…fad9backed Yes | 38c | 97.88$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.61 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a0…c18cbacked No | 60c | 85.77$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.72 | 65 | 55.4%36 W · 29 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa5de…5874backed Yes | 24c | 80.01$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.81 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes | 26c | 80$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 14cpaid | +93.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 45c | 79.17$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.48 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa40e…7145backed Yes | 24c | 78.94$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.76per pick | 24cpaid | +313.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x880c…440abacked No | 75c | 70.1$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.58 | 115 | 39.1%45 W · 70 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 28c | 69.02$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.48 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked No | 71c | 59.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.45 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c95…5497backed Yes | 24c | 53.92$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.76per pick | 24cpaid | +316.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x000c…4375backed Yes | 35c | 49.61$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +185.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cf…7825backed No | 23c | 45.45$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x310a…91f3backed Yes | 77c | 38.42$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.84 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd69…f7b2backed Yes | 37c | 36.41$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.94 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c9f…8c23backed Yes | 78c | 31.8$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.95 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cea…ac28backed Yes | 59c | 26.78$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.07 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…ba2cbacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd49…515dbacked Yes | 79c | 18.65$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.92 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8bb…ca84backed Yes | 79c | 16.25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Chess and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Javokhir Sindarov win on 2026-04-04 at FIDE Candidates 2026 Open?this page
- Will Yi Wei vs. Javokhir Sindarov end in a draw?No won
- Will Yi Wei win on 2026-04-04 at FIDE Candidates 2026 Open?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.