Tennis · resolved market
Shanghai Rolex Masters: Adrian Mannarino vs Matteo Berrettini
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7f3b60b01b45ef7b2100c235e4c81052481628be678772a2525b3389fc1871f4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Mannarinoof Mannarino, Berrettini
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,921
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,396
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,921 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2129…4222backed Mannarino | 59c | 2,353$1,393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$960.3 | 652 | 42.8%279 W · 373 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Berrettini | 53c | 2,328$1,223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,222.97 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea8…1fbfbacked Berrettini | 55c | 1,659$914 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$913.93 | 170 | 46.5%79 W · 91 L | +6.8wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Mannarino | 41c | 1,204$494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$710.56 | 69 | 30.4%21 W · 48 L | -9.8wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Mannarino | 44c | 870$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$485.2 | 819 | 38.9%319 W · 500 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Berrettini | 24c | 705$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.05 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bee…ca01backed Mannarino | 80c | 692.23$553 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.52 | 120 | 50%60 W · 60 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Berrettini | 55c | 600.91$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.67 | 551 | 43.4%239 W · 312 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Berrettini | 56c | 500$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe671…a682backed Mannarino | 45c | 500$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275 | 576 | 45.5%262 W · 314 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x459a…8a5abacked Berrettini | 58c | 350$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4192…7f00backed Mannarino | 42c | 300$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174 | 50 | 30%15 W · 35 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6884…6ccfbacked Berrettini | 56c | 254$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.24 | 116 | 47.4%55 W · 61 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Berrettini | 55c | 235.46$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.07 | 1,039 | 54.6%567 W · 472 L | +37.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Mannarino | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.27 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf575…e0ebbacked Mannarino | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 204 | 31.9%65 W · 139 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7f…90c5backed Mannarino | 45c | 193.33$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.33 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | -7.5wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -32%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfdbf…c88ebacked Mannarino | 42c | 190.48$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.48 | 245 | 29.8%73 W · 172 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d1…2b9ebacked Berrettini | 21c | 186.15$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 164 | 45.7%75 W · 89 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Mannarino | 80c | 160$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.7 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c96…f165backed Berrettini | 60c | 125$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +3.1wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +48.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Berrettini | 21c | 111$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.76 | 439 | 48.5%213 W · 226 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa263…6cf0backed Berrettini | 23c | 108.7$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 175 | 38.3%67 W · 108 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x420e…e3c9backed Berrettini | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 122 | 56.6%69 W · 53 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64ae…ead9backed Mannarino | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 606 | 41.6%252 W · 354 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…7a56backed Mannarino | 44c | 89.9$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.9 | 2,335 | 46.6%1,088 W · 1,247 L | +55.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb852…bfaebacked Mannarino | 44c | 83.38$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.69 | 296 | 34.1%101 W · 195 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…14a3backed Mannarino | 43c | 81.82$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.82 | 383 | 56.9%218 W · 165 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f0e…7b1fbacked Mannarino | 44c | 79.55$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.55 | 54 | 59.3%32 W · 22 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a64…bb41backed Mannarino | 44c | 79.55$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.55 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18e2…ca98backed Mannarino | 44c | 78.85$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.85 | 94 | 63.8%60 W · 34 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb740…2ec1backed Mannarino | 45c | 77.78$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.78 | 351 | 57%200 W · 151 L | -13.4wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd52…07aabacked Mannarino | 46c | 76.79$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.78 | 167 | 62.9%105 W · 62 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb56b…7150backed Mannarino | 46c | 76.09$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.09 | 165 | 64.8%107 W · 58 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec10…4d93backed Mannarino | 47c | 74.61$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.61 | 72 | 63.9%46 W · 26 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf8b…bff8backed Berrettini | 57c | 70.77$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 372 | 38.2%142 W · 230 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x588d…099abacked Mannarino | 80c | 70$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 127 | 37%47 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Mannarino | 43c | 58.14$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.14 | 639 | 42.4%271 W · 368 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8004…8125backed Mannarino | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15de…9e12backed Mannarino | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe49c…773ebacked Mannarino | 73c | 35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Berrettini | 53c | 25.54$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 730 | 48.8%356 W · 374 L | -18.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.