Champions League · resolved market
Will Sturm Graz beat Club Brugge?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7f45debd4cbb16c9c4dd059eb1201cac81f2583c9132f52477c7e9da1ce20a0e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,621
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,637
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,621 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc7ed…6c8bbacked Yes | 23c | 4,555$1,048 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,047.65 | 102 | 32.4%33 W · 69 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6761…a94fbacked No | 77c | 3,960$3,048 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$911.71 | 90 | 38.9%35 W · 55 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe91…70ffbacked Yes | 32c | 2,052$666 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$665.6 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked No | 68c | 1,766$1,197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$568.23 | 170 | 53.5%91 W · 79 L | +7.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed42…7718backed No | 76c | 668.18$509 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.63 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 58cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6248…51cfbacked Yes | 26c | 242.79$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c0…3f84backed No | 74c | 200$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -3.5wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbd…af92backed No | 66c | 163.14$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.53 | 47 | 59.6%28 W · 19 L | +8.2wins | +0.17per pick | 42cpaid | +45.5%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf082…822cbacked Yes | 27c | 148.7$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ff0…40b9backed No | 74c | 148.65$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.65 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1266…cd8cbacked Yes | 29c | 140$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.4 | 97 | 52.6%51 W · 46 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed No | 76c | 100.85$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.51 | 244 | 55.7%136 W · 108 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd28e…d68fbacked Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f50…4db9backed No | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 33c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 173 | 22%38 W · 135 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 27c | 49.9$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.47 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0559…be32backed No | 67c | 47.76$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b27…e49dbacked No | 67c | 43.28$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.28 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f7…8dc6backed No | 66c | 36.36$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1599…f75abacked No | 66c | 33.33$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.33 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7004…50d2backed No | 74c | 32.4$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.9wins | -0.47per pick | 72cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdf4b…3742backed No | 66c | 24.24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9d4…4eb6backed No | 74c | 21.62$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9b…b406backed No | 66c | 18.18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf1e…9b17backed No | 75c | 17.33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.33 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Sturm Graz beat Club Brugge?this page
- Will Club Brugge beat Sturm Graz?Yes won
- Will the match between Sturm Graz and Club Brugge end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.