Champions League · resolved market
Will Club Brugge beat Sturm Graz?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3d740f812af72fa804f0cdca208a41124681712cacd87c886473998565234e0d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,546
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,403
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,546 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked Yes | 46c | 8,921$4,136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,784.76 | 170 | 53.5%91 W · 79 L | +7.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ed…6c8bbacked No | 50c | 5,555$2,777 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,777.5 | 102 | 32.4%33 W · 69 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c0…3f84backed No | 54c | 5,000$2,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,700 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -3.5wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6761…a94fbacked Yes | 48c | 4,792$2,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,491.53 | 90 | 38.9%35 W · 55 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4aef…9337backed No | 49c | 3,900$1,912 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,912 | 247 | 42.5%105 W · 142 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked No | 57c | 2,250$1,280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,280 | 115 | 48.7%56 W · 59 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe91…70ffbacked No | 59c | 2,067$1,228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,228.37 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18c4…106dbacked Yes | 41c | 879.79$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$519.08 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3168…6734backed No | 61c | 655.24$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.7 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed No | 60c | 444$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.4 | 138 | 43.5%60 W · 78 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6650…d38ebacked Yes | 49c | 205$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.55 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1820…e3f7backed Yes | 48c | 204.25$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.15 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeffb…aeccbacked No | 52c | 200$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7be1…03f9backed Yes | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed Yes | 60c | 192.37$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.49 | 226 | 47.3%107 W · 119 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa6…db6abacked No | 56c | 138.33$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.23 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67b5…9f1ebacked Yes | 48c | 131$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.82 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +74.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1645…47a0backed Yes | 39c | 128.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.21 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05ff…b701backed Yes | 40c | 125.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.5 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f85…d745backed No | 47c | 120.98$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.86 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 48c | 111$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.72 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49b8…762dbacked Yes | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +54.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbe9…f4e5backed Yes | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 64cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1266…cd8cbacked No | 58c | 100$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 97 | 52.6%51 W · 46 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbd…af92backed Yes | 38c | 78.71$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.8 | 47 | 59.6%28 W · 19 L | +8.2wins | +0.17per pick | 42cpaid | +45.5%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1563…c575backed Yes | 39c | 77.1$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8410…46bbbacked No | 62c | 77.1$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0873…807abacked No | 53c | 60.01$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.82 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c52…23cabacked Yes | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 244 | 55.7%136 W · 108 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf22e…8d9cbacked No | 51c | 49$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8be…0514backed Yes | 48c | 48.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50cf…b33cbacked Yes | 49c | 42.58$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +103.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0efc…a858backed No | 54c | 41.1$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf631…e20fbacked Yes | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ea4…e097backed Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2014…0e52backed Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdbf…cb7fbacked No | 54c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a35…94eebacked No | 52c | 39.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7590…5448backed Yes | 49c | 37.35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98cc…c75fbacked Yes | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 32cpaid | -82.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xff42…83e5backed Yes | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -3.9wins | -0.33per pick | 58cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe9…df64backed No | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c6c…b6d7backed No | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8a90…721bbacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Club Brugge beat Sturm Graz?this page
- Will Sturm Graz beat Club Brugge?No won
- Will the match between Sturm Graz and Club Brugge end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.