Tennis · resolved market
Bucaramanga: Daniel Nunez vs Matias Soto
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7f54460c0ab7318186167270cc8de3d14e003d84e9de116b348dc06a21d5f5e8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Matias Sotoof Daniel Nunez, Matias Soto
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,704
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,704 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Daniel Nunez | 3c | 5,412$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.72 | 1,265 | 29.2%370 W · 895 L | -13.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Daniel Nunez | 24c | 1,100$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.24 | 248 | 37.1%92 W · 156 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd48d…5182backed Matias Soto | 75c | 855$641 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.8 | 245 | 58.8%144 W · 101 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Matias Soto | 77c | 615.97$473 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.93 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Daniel Nunez | 24c | 584.97$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.39 | 3,901 | 50.1%1,953 W · 1,948 L | -13.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a9…e22ebacked Daniel Nunez | 23c | 509.93$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.35 | 1,284 | 39.2%503 W · 781 L | -12.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x482c…4da1backed Daniel Nunez | 24c | 274.66$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.92 | 174 | 47.7%83 W · 91 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e1…c20abacked Matias Soto | 76c | 250$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.24 | 737 | 45.2%333 W · 404 L | -9.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…5e8abacked Daniel Nunez | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 118 | 26.3%31 W · 87 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…579cbacked Matias Soto | 77c | 189.41$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.57 | 556 | 60.3%335 W · 221 L | +13.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb580…9b95backed Matias Soto | 75c | 160$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.28 | 269 | 41.3%111 W · 158 L | -9.0wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…08c1backed Matias Soto | 76c | 149$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.24 | 2,145 | 56%1,201 W · 944 L | +41.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Daniel Nunez | 23c | 116.98$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.01 | 6,867 | 48.9%3,357 W · 3,510 L | +61.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Daniel Nunez | 23c | 113.34$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.57 | 2,982 | 39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Matias Soto | 75c | 109.92$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.36 | 1,809 | 43.8%793 W · 1,016 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Matias Soto | 76c | 105.42$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.3 | 2,445 | 51.6%1,262 W · 1,183 L | +8.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa05…fed7backed Matias Soto | 75c | 80.99$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.99 | 166 | 57.2%95 W · 71 L | -9.2wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd038…8f51backed Matias Soto | 76c | 67.58$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.24 | 4,288 | 40.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L | -139.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Matias Soto | 75c | 57.88$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.42 | 1,444 | 38%548 W · 896 L | -46.0wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x800d…47afbacked Daniel Nunez | 23c | 50.92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe565…6a38backed Daniel Nunez | 23c | 50.92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9534…4182backed Daniel Nunez | 23c | 50.92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3fd…682dbacked Daniel Nunez | 23c | 50.92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…f55cbacked Daniel Nunez | 23c | 50.92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +53.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0811…db7ebacked Daniel Nunez | 23c | 50.92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3123…b44dbacked Matias Soto | 79c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 476 | 53.2%253 W · 223 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Matias Soto | 76c | 30.1$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.22 | 8,057 | 50.8%4,089 W · 3,968 L | +90.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe10f…c59fbacked Matias Soto | 75c | 26.73$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.73 | 104 | 74%77 W · 27 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7960…fe2abacked Matias Soto | 76c | 26.47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.47 | 76 | 65.8%50 W · 26 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x680d…98b8backed Matias Soto | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 96 | 63.5%61 W · 35 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Matias Soto | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 619 | 53.3%330 W · 289 L | +18.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Bucaramanga: Daniel Nunez vs Matias Sotothis page
- Set 1 Winner: Nunez vs SotoSoto won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.