IPO · resolved market
Will Kailera Therapeutics’s market cap be greater than $2.1B at market close on IPO day?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7f89acacdeb9935258221305d9bb146a3bb9b64010a4ff685dddc7f95f5e43ad
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- IPOevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,975
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,244
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,975 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in IPO is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in IPO | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc23e…1461backed Yes | 62c | 2,692$1,665 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,026.38 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…af4bbacked No | 44c | 1,185$524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$523.69 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | -3.8wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7bc5…4626backed No | 43c | 853.95$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.57 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0b…f96cbacked Yes | 56c | 414.86$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 44c | 355.2$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.54 | 81 | 29.6%24 W · 57 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf629…bda0backed No | 23c | 334.03$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.65 | 79 | 31.6%25 W · 54 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b2…2171backed No | 44c | 284.02$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.97 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.26per pick | 43cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc319…0e0cbacked No | 18c | 225$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbff…e8e7backed No | 46c | 200$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -2.0wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 52c | 83.76$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.16 | 144 | 25.7%37 W · 107 L | -9.8wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9035…1e37backed No | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 29c | 39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 92 | 15.2%14 W · 78 L | -16.3wins | -0.18per pick | 33cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…38ccbacked Yes | 55c | 33.32$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.99 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 48c | 28.58$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in IPO and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Kailera Therapeutics’s market cap be greater than $2.1B at market close on IPO day?this page
- Will Kailera Therapeutics’s market cap be between $1.7B and $1.8B at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will Kailera Therapeutics’s market cap be between $1.8B and $1.9B at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will Kailera Therapeutics’s market cap be between $1.9B and $2.0B at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will Kailera Therapeutics’s market cap be between $2.0B and $2.1B at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will Kailera Therapeutics’s market cap be less than $1.7B at market close on IPO day?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.