Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 8°C or higher on March 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7f918ba59f3b12c2d4389c806e8392353c2dbec05c5bb4ee4eaa290038ec393b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,175
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,175 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5d4e…14cfbacked No | 1c | 4,000$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 138 | 9.4%13 W · 125 L | +10.4wins | +0.08per pick | 2cpaid | +357.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 17c | 2,334$389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,944.52 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x937b…bfabbacked Yes | 75c | 2,020$1,524 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$495.76 | 20 | 90%18 W · 2 L | +4.6wins | +0.23per pick | 67cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcd75…d07ebacked No | 3c | 1,376$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.61 | 154 | 33.8%52 W · 102 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 25c | 870.49$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$649.89 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x938d…8674backed No | 3c | 603.3$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.21 | 467 | 33.4%156 W · 311 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked No | 15c | 493.92$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.23 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa271…2727backed No | 2c | 463.72$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 52 | 0%0 W · 52 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd280…82b3backed Yes | 8c | 447$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.08 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +62.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1a…4221backed No | 12c | 441.68$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.05 | 144 | 42.4%61 W · 83 L | -11.7wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed No | 5c | 387.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.85 | 328 | 18.3%60 W · 268 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 49c | 384.95$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.76 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8df9…468cbacked No | 20c | 365.08$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07c2…7a17backed No | 6c | 358$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.48 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8110…c1babacked No | 4c | 315.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.03 | 82 | 50%41 W · 41 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 16c | 297.3$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.08 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes | 78c | 292.53$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.93 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 9c | 242.13$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.41 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 14c | 225.56$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.41 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 33c | 218.64$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.23 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc97c…b49ebacked No | 14c | 208.19$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.9 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -3.4wins | -0.21per pick | 52cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.78 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Yes | 76c | 185$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.09 | 358 | 43.9%157 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad62…2aa9backed Yes | 51c | 125.53$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.79 | 165 | 32.7%54 W · 111 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 49c | 125.14$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.3 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 9c | 124.89$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.17 | 346 | 17.9%62 W · 284 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b7…ac89backed No | 47c | 94.74$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.84 | 110 | 44.5%49 W · 61 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64bd…82cfbacked No | 13c | 80.55$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 187 | 61%114 W · 73 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 22c | 64.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.41 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07d9…9397backed Yes | 79c | 55.99$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.99 | 48 | 62.5%30 W · 18 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xece5…43cfbacked No | 21c | 49.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf69c…44dbbacked Yes | 80c | 48.78$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.77 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ac5…b17cbacked Yes | 54c | 40.52$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.74 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c95…bb48backed Yes | 79c | 40.21$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.29 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +58%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e99…9584backed Yes | 43c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.87 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae07…8059backed No | 48c | 33.46$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 435 | 25.3%110 W · 325 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9e…9ec0backed Yes | 60c | 31.53$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.61 | 90 | 46.7%42 W · 48 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd4e0…3913backed Yes | 79c | 25.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 68cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f44…c470backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.98 | 75 | 46.7%35 W · 40 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf251…5d3fbacked Yes | 79c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.73 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 8°C or higher on March 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 0°C or below on March 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 7°C on March 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.