NHL · resolved market
Kraken vs. Oilers: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7fd4c0bba2559e7e695e4f85b34f4bf3838071bd137353b6cacf6afb29cf0eb0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,583
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,253
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,583 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 46c | 4,217$1,940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,940 | 895 | 47%421 W · 474 L | -18.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35ac…92a7backed Over | 53c | 3,780$2,003 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,776.57 | 275 | 48.7%134 W · 141 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec13…862bbacked Under | 47c | 3,333$1,567 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,566.51 | 225 | 46.2%104 W · 121 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 54c | 1,735$937 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$798.1 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2586…c893backed Over | 53c | 1,000$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470 | 836 | 52.8%441 W · 395 L | +28.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 47c | 574$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.26 | 874 | 47%411 W · 463 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27df…e67cbacked Over | 55c | 540.71$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.71 | 141 | 48.9%69 W · 72 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4103…9b9ebacked Over | 56c | 500$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220 | 288 | 42%121 W · 167 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…b5b6backed Under | 46c | 407.41$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.41 | 1,377 | 49.1%676 W · 701 L | +39.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84d9…76dbbacked Over | 54c | 370.37$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.37 | 485 | 52.2%253 W · 232 L | +8.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Under | 47c | 241$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.27 | 1,530 | 51.7%791 W · 739 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 47c | 200$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa924…b1b9backed Under | 53c | 200$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 337 | 35%118 W · 219 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Over | 54c | 150$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 764 | 50.4%385 W · 379 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e4…22ccbacked Under | 45c | 149.98$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.49 | 480 | 46.9%225 W · 255 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Over | 54c | 129.63$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.63 | 1,093 | 51.8%566 W · 527 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 54c | 128.11$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.96 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Over | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 346 | 53.2%184 W · 162 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e6…fd37backed Over | 56c | 98.54$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.36 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.16per pick | 53cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf8c…4bc2backed Over | 55c | 55.04$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.04 | 253 | 58.5%148 W · 105 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Over | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 479 | 44.7%214 W · 265 L | -25.8wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Over | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 418 | 47.8%200 W · 218 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedb5…ce8ebacked Over | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 132 | 46.2%61 W · 71 L | -8.3wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3692…baefbacked Over | 54c | 35.48$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.32 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd87b…946dbacked Over | 56c | 35.23$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Over | 54c | 33$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.18 | 574 | 53.8%309 W · 265 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Under | 45c | 27.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 695 | 50.1%348 W · 347 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c6…0233backed Over | 54c | 26.96$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Kraken vs. Oilers: O/U 5.5this page
- Kraken vs. OilersOilers won
- Spread: Oilers (-1.5)Oilers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.