Tennis · resolved market
ITF Tokyo: Ran Wakana vs Yuno Kitahara
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8004f23668cea3f0acb92dcf2945bfb5ccdcd7271e0db4893f7728af992dffd4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yuno Kitaharaof Ran Wakana, Yuno Kitahara
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,048
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,621
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,048 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Ran Wakana | 23c | 686.17$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.92 | 5,416 | 48.6%2,633 W · 2,783 L | +14.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Yuno Kitahara | 60c | 566.52$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.96 | 2,761 | 53.9%1,487 W · 1,274 L | +73.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0284…97f6backed Yuno Kitahara | 50c | 560.93$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.47 | 84 | 61.9%52 W · 32 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20ba…6c27backed Yuno Kitahara | 72c | 357.11$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.85 | 1,186 | 62.8%745 W · 441 L | -16.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82b0…7c38backed Ran Wakana | 50c | 310.53$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.27 | 359 | 55.7%200 W · 159 L | +20.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Yuno Kitahara | 65c | 307.77$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.77 | 1,615 | 50.6%817 W · 798 L | -17.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Ran Wakana | 23c | 305.1$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.75 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Ran Wakana | 32c | 288.46$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.47 | 6,449 | 46.3%2,987 W · 3,462 L | -42.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Ran Wakana | 11c | 202.19$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.36 | 1,822 | 41%747 W · 1,075 L | -30.2wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Ran Wakana | 24c | 200.59$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.27 | 1,870 | 16%299 W · 1,571 L | -314.3wins | -0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 32-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xe24e…eecebacked Ran Wakana | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 878 | 54.7%480 W · 398 L | +8.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb155…ca84backed Ran Wakana | 11c | 200$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.45 | 920 | 46.6%429 W · 491 L | -14.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bd…e48fbacked Ran Wakana | 24c | 114.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.09 | 150 | 53.3%80 W · 70 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Ran Wakana | 27c | 54.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 4,602 | 48.3%2,223 W · 2,379 L | +34.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Yuno Kitahara | 64c | 46$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.56 | 1,125 | 51.1%575 W · 550 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Yuno Kitahara | 72c | 29.87$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.26 | 7,816 | 50.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L | +95.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Yuno Kitahara | 75c | 28.96$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 6,439 | 54.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L | +285.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e38…b4cbbacked Yuno Kitahara | 64c | 21.11$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.64 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +3.6wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x372f…182abacked Ran Wakana | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6770…5bdfbacked Yuno Kitahara | 75c | 17.69$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.47 | 969 | 45.9%445 W · 524 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x985d…33c9backed Yuno Kitahara | 63c | 15.75$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 1,300 | 36.9%480 W · 820 L | -34.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.