Tennis · resolved market
Shanghai Rolex Masters: Arthur Cazaux vs Pedro Martinez
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x80e13a48eccfbd9839040646babe9b15c55d40ffb184b0ec8de164c551f017e0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cazauxof Cazaux, Martinez
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,262
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,377
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,262 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7197…14c8backed Martinez | 37c | 3,830$1,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,400 | 71 | 52.1%37 W · 34 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Martinez | 7c | 3,160$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.95 | 652 | 42.8%279 W · 373 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Cazaux | 61c | 2,366$1,447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$919.34 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Cazaux | 62c | 1,784$1,109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$674.82 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef5…39edbacked Martinez | 21c | 1,301$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 257 | 22.2%57 W · 200 L | -12.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Cazaux | 80c | 1,009$804 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.08 | 627 | 42.4%266 W · 361 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Martinez | 7c | 1,000$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.88 | 359 | 32.6%117 W · 242 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bee…ca01backed Martinez | 46c | 804.75$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.7 | 120 | 50%60 W · 60 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Martinez | 20c | 620$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.89 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Martinez | 4c | 619$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.39 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a70cbacked Cazaux | 71c | 564.08$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.08 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +4.1wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Martinez | 22c | 452.86$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1574…64c9backed Martinez | 23c | 437.96$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.05 | 476 | 39.1%186 W · 290 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Martinez | 21c | 425.23$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.08 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61c1…0513backed Cazaux | 75c | 399.49$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.49 | 1,287 | 60.7%781 W · 506 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa253…7630backed Martinez | 21c | 286$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.06 | 56 | 32.1%18 W · 38 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Cazaux | 79c | 286$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.06 | 1,039 | 54.6%567 W · 472 L | +37.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4dcd…1722backed Martinez | 23c | 280$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.4 | 61 | 26.2%16 W · 45 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Martinez | 13c | 200$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 629 | 52.1%328 W · 301 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf575…e0ebbacked Martinez | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 204 | 31.9%65 W · 139 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x051d…6980backed Cazaux | 77c | 140$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.2 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x48c5…2cb2backed Martinez | 14c | 106.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…06c9backed Martinez | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 260 | 45%117 W · 143 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60a1…1485backed Martinez | 19c | 96.22$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb852…bfaebacked Martinez | 23c | 90$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 296 | 34.1%101 W · 195 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x731b…bdcabacked Cazaux | 78c | 56.68$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.47 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5adf…a5e7backed Martinez | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 253 | 42.7%108 W · 145 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb25e…39aabacked Martinez | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.28per pick | 57cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xecba…5fb4backed Cazaux | 75c | 27.72$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 114 | 57.9%66 W · 48 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Cazaux | 78c | 22.73$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 281 | 41.6%117 W · 164 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.