Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on July 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x80ea76f30adb386b4e2d36cdc3f41d6b5179af06313b83533c9ec58fdf4602a4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,645
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,421
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,645 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 66c | 559.49$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.74 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 15c | 553.87$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.4 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 10c | 269.22$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.9 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 33c | 240.18$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.28 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 28c | 227.28$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.78 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a83…497dbacked Yes | 32c | 154.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.6 | 349 | 35.2%123 W · 226 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd35…c85ebacked Yes | 32c | 125.22$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 70c | 114.43$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.43 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 20c | 110.67$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.47 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.75 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2540…d515backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6b7…7518backed Yes | 19c | 99.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -51%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5203…b975backed Yes | 29c | 99.98$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.99 | 186 | 41.4%77 W · 109 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62d3…e694backed Yes | 30c | 99.95$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.98 | 161 | 35.4%57 W · 104 L | -12.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 33c | 97.21$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd1e…862ebacked Yes | 15c | 86.46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 87 | 27.6%24 W · 63 L | -10.0wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 27c | 82.98$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.69 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked Yes | 34c | 80$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.4 | 347 | 48.7%169 W · 178 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 67c | 76.12$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.12 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 17c | 74.85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x06a3…fa45backed No | 68c | 73.86$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.86 | 156 | 60.9%95 W · 61 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb80c…827bbacked No | 70c | 72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.8 | 277 | 54.9%152 W · 125 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed Yes | 18c | 71.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcf8b…4dedbacked Yes | 31c | 56.91$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.81 | 145 | 46.9%68 W · 77 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 33c | 54.52$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 32c | 51.35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed Yes | 29c | 49.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 75c | 48.96$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.1 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed Yes | 30c | 34.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 69c | 30.01$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.29 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 71c | 29.63$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.59 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 70c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.61 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 71c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75e8…2e62backed No | 71c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 49 | 71.4%35 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 75c | 27.21$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.77 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 70c | 24.73$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.49 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca9…fe9cbacked No | 68c | 19.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 46 | 28.3%13 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 67c | 19.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf01d…bb31backed No | 80c | 18.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 162 | 72.2%117 W · 45 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…2caabacked No | 70c | 17.24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.17 | 445 | 67%298 W · 147 L | +17.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…2a11backed No | 70c | 17.24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.17 | 288 | 66.3%191 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1dc…4f72backed No | 80c | 15.74$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.2 | 241 | 64.7%156 W · 85 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb8c…23c8backed No | 80c | 15.19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.04 | 77 | 62.3%48 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 76c | 13.92$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.35 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on July 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C or below on July 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on July 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on July 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on July 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on July 13?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on July 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on July 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.