Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on July 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x72f4f8ed421d7d879fc70712fa183963b5042a46612199f0eaabbadec7d1c20d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,906
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,221
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,906 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x652d…46b3backed No | 5c | 1,567$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.32 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 31c | 693.77$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.38 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 17c | 268.01$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.49 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked No | 4c | 261.82$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 43c | 173.58$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.33 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 12c | 140$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a5f…1a13backed No | 76c | 131.87$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -7.2wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcd1e…862ebacked No | 28c | 131.78$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.33 | 87 | 27.6%24 W · 63 L | -10.0wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 12c | 129.75$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.58 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5e…40fbbacked Yes | 78c | 128$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.54 | 335 | 61.5%206 W · 129 L | -22.2wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8857…4b5bbacked Yes | 79c | 121$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.82 | 227 | 40.5%92 W · 135 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 40c | 119.06$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.22 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6243…e014backed No | 21c | 107.14$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.26 | 232 | 43.5%101 W · 131 L | +24.3wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +25%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7515…0d06backed No | 56c | 107$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.92 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 40c | 102.79$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.2 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a83…497dbacked Yes | 41c | 101.83$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.29 | 349 | 35.2%123 W · 226 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 33c | 100.81$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.41 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42e5…c9a7backed No | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 410 | 33.7%138 W · 272 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba9…9c5bbacked No | 25c | 99.87$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 101 | 33.7%34 W · 67 L | -10.9wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 12c | 99.82$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.58 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 60c | 97$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.56 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496d…a2f2backed Yes | 23c | 93.15$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.03 | 89 | 27%24 W · 65 L | +7.4wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | +164.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x78c2…53adbacked No | 23c | 89.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.15 | 87 | 37.9%33 W · 54 L | +5.8wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc6bd…2c9dbacked No | 34c | 88.09$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 213 | 40.8%87 W · 126 L | +23.8wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +34%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xaab7…dd3bbacked Yes | 45c | 87.75$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.7 | 159 | 40.3%64 W · 95 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x116d…fbf1backed No | 13c | 85.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 178 | 59%105 W · 73 L | +20.1wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc5…d6b7backed No | 60c | 83$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.88 | 274 | 61.7%169 W · 105 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…f053backed No | 33c | 80$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.56 | 180 | 46.1%83 W · 97 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 28c | 75.33$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.12 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 15c | 68.6$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe718…1e2bbacked No | 17c | 67.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7da…5b7bbacked Yes | 74c | 67.12$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.12 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3311…d659backed Yes | 77c | 65.3$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 195 | 51.8%101 W · 94 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e71…c3b3backed Yes | 66c | 63.62$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.85 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 65c | 61.55$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 20c | 57.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0ded…6294backed No | 75c | 57$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.61 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 72c | 54.79$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.27 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…5e85backed Yes | 80c | 53.62$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2429…02d9backed No | 33c | 52.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.33 | 177 | 47.5%84 W · 93 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 62c | 49.04$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.36 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked No | 27c | 44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x165f…d7c0backed Yes | 60c | 43.64$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.56 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -3.1wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked No | 56c | 43.39$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.08 | 347 | 48.7%169 W · 178 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed No | 35c | 42.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 79c | 42.19$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.79 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 77c | 41$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.48 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b36…0d4bbacked Yes | 75c | 40.17$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.19 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -4.9wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x38c7…1c86backed No | 36c | 38.79$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 118 | 44.1%52 W · 66 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b4b…c587backed Yes | 79c | 38.14$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.14 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 65c | 37.04$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.01 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6cd…eaecbacked Yes | 78c | 32.04$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 146 | 60.3%88 W · 58 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 35c | 30.82$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca5…ddfebacked No | 64c | 30.36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.42 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2c…8099backed Yes | 43c | 24.62$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.98 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 66c | 24.12$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd654…2efebacked No | 60c | 23.44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 404 | 61.4%248 W · 156 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 67c | 22.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7112…6d11backed Yes | 71c | 20.17$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.85 | 349 | 70.2%245 W · 104 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff3…4b1ebacked No | 55c | 19.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 80 | 73.8%59 W · 21 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 70cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b60…6272backed Yes | 76c | 19.66$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.66 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 58c | 19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x047b…83b1backed Yes | 63c | 18.9$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.91 | 134 | 52.2%70 W · 64 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2706…c6bebacked No | 77c | 14.84$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.38 | 318 | 66%210 W · 108 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on July 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C or below on July 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on July 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on July 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on July 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on July 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on July 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on July 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.