College Football · resolved market
Spread: Penn State (-13.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x81086ca7bfcbdda7987b01827dc1d6f96eb968e5c478b494246a4388008e3c17
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Rutgersof Penn State, Rutgers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,998
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $50,709
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,998 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Penn State | 52c | 20,528$10,758 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,758.3 | 524 | 49.4%259 W · 265 L | -2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Rutgers | 48c | 13,945$6,649 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,296.41 | 935 | 48.4%453 W · 482 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Penn State | 53c | 12,500$6,613 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,612.5 | 399 | 54.1%216 W · 183 L | +16.7wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Rutgers | 47c | 5,712$2,685 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,027.59 | 261 | 47.9%125 W · 136 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Rutgers | 47c | 5,000$2,350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,650 | 526 | 41.8%220 W · 306 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5f2…0234backed Rutgers | 47c | 4,500$2,115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,385 | 85 | 49.4%42 W · 43 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaef…54e9backed Penn State | 53c | 4,500$2,385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,385 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +3.4wins | +0.20per pick | 51cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Rutgers | 47c | 4,260$2,002 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,257.57 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Rutgers | 48c | 1,875$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$975 | 485 | 46.8%227 W · 258 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Rutgers | 48c | 1,472$702 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$769.56 | 588 | 50.2%295 W · 293 L | +23.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Rutgers | 47c | 372$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.16 | 190 | 51.6%98 W · 92 L | +8.9wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Rutgers | 48c | 190.5$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.62 | 542 | 43.2%234 W · 308 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x258e…d16cbacked Penn State | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 174 | 50%87 W · 87 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe832…7abbbacked Penn State | 54c | 183.64$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Rutgers | 46c | 162.23$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.34 | 94 | 44.7%42 W · 52 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Rutgers | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 659 | 45.2%298 W · 361 L | -13.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1a…0df6backed Penn State | 52c | 75.42$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.22 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Penn State | 53c | 62$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.86 | 632 | 43.7%276 W · 356 L | +34.8wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +138.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Rutgers | 47c | 53$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.04 | 280 | 32.9%92 W · 188 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x182d…73e9backed Rutgers | 50c | 29.63$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.81 | 134 | 44%59 W · 75 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Penn State (-13.5)this page
- Penn State vs. RutgersPenn State won
- Penn State vs. Rutgers: O/U 54.5Over won
- Penn State vs. Rutgers: O/U 55.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.