College Football · resolved market
Penn State vs. Rutgers
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbe45219ba4adb9b41d9cbab5a43c82f3b61de55f67af8e6add656dfa2d6c7a0b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Penn Stateof Penn State, Rutgers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $286,587
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $364,668
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $286,587 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Rutgers | 16c | 32,550$5,208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,208 | 935 | 48.4%453 W · 482 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68dd…f0b2backed Rutgers | 16c | 20,000$3,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,200 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Rutgers | 11c | 13,498$1,428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,428.26 | 405 | 41.2%167 W · 238 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xead0…f3babacked Rutgers | 16c | 10,000$1,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,600 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Rutgers | 12c | 9,196$1,091 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,090.97 | 628 | 43.6%274 W · 354 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cb…d096backed Rutgers | 19c | 8,811$1,705 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,704.77 | 139 | 33.1%46 W · 93 L | -8.4wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -45%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Rutgers | 16c | 8,131$1,339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,338.5 | 659 | 45.2%298 W · 361 L | -13.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x057a…3bacbacked Rutgers | 19c | 6,086$1,161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,161.24 | 174 | 43.7%76 W · 98 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa225…b903backed Rutgers | 18c | 5,416$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Rutgers | 16c | 4,093$655 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$654.94 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec13…862bbacked Rutgers | 17c | 3,333$567 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$566.6 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Rutgers | 9c | 3,028$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.36 | 215 | 38.6%83 W · 132 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Rutgers | 9c | 2,368$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.24 | 862 | 43.7%377 W · 485 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Rutgers | 37c | 2,055$753 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$752.6 | 190 | 43.2%82 W · 108 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb40…a284backed Rutgers | 19c | 1,800$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342 | 345 | 29.9%103 W · 242 L | -21.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Rutgers | 16c | 1,687$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.72 | 485 | 46.8%227 W · 258 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Rutgers | 18c | 1,500$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 134 | 17.2%23 W · 111 L | -8.3wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Penn State | 40c | 1,452$576 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$875.5 | 267 | 50.9%136 W · 131 L | +21.7wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcfca…68fcbacked Rutgers | 18c | 1,443$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.78 | 471 | 31.4%148 W · 323 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Rutgers | 17c | 1,330$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.04 | 494 | 43.7%216 W · 278 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89f3…dfffbacked Rutgers | 16c | 1,251$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.16 | 91 | 24.2%22 W · 69 L | -5.6wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Rutgers | 16c | 1,238$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.01 | 503 | 58.1%292 W · 211 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe16c…6909backed Rutgers | 16c | 1,236$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeca9…32c6backed Rutgers | 19c | 1,156$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Rutgers | 13c | 1,149$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.22 | 648 | 41.2%267 W · 381 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x182d…73e9backed Rutgers | 20c | 1,010$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 134 | 44%59 W · 75 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9f…f6a3backed Rutgers | 18c | 1,000$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Rutgers | 17c | 986.92$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.78 | 220 | 30.5%67 W · 153 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Rutgers | 47c | 986.73$463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$462.71 | 588 | 50.2%295 W · 293 L | +23.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Rutgers | 8c | 931.72$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.81 | 553 | 50.3%278 W · 275 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd503…023abacked Rutgers | 44c | 684.01$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.6 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.31per pick | 45cpaid | -81.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Rutgers | 16c | 661.92$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.91 | 284 | 40.8%116 W · 168 L | -10.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Penn State | 75c | 612.7$462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.92 | 402 | 44.8%180 W · 222 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Rutgers | 13c | 592$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.27 | 571 | 44.7%255 W · 316 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d4…ad20backed Rutgers | 16c | 500$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Rutgers | 22c | 455$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.48 | 269 | 39.8%107 W · 162 L | -10.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24db…1332backed Rutgers | 22c | 454.55$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 60 | 23.3%14 W · 46 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb589…33d4backed Rutgers | 40c | 453$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.42 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +6.4wins | +0.17per pick | 31cpaid | +72.1%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Rutgers | 13c | 438.89$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.01 | 542 | 43.2%234 W · 308 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ae9…74acbacked Penn State | 49c | 399.2$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.79 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Rutgers | 16c | 313$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.08 | 190 | 51.6%98 W · 92 L | +8.9wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe30e…4eedbacked Rutgers | 8c | 294.54$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.89 | 52 | 23.1%12 W · 40 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Penn State | 72c | 235.99$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.98 | 262 | 44.3%116 W · 146 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Rutgers | 18c | 228.59$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.16 | 280 | 32.9%92 W · 188 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Rutgers | 24c | 225$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 198 | 42.9%85 W · 113 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cd…b74cbacked Rutgers | 12c | 165.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 258 | 19.8%51 W · 207 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -26%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked Rutgers | 17c | 159.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.7 | 124 | 33.1%41 W · 83 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61fa…7f62backed Rutgers | 66c | 152.65$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 68cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71bd…6fcbbacked Rutgers | 18c | 150$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Penn State | 52c | 127.64$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.16 | 205 | 53.7%110 W · 95 L | +14.6wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb59e…17d7backed Penn State | 43c | 125$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.25 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd2…2b28backed Rutgers | 17c | 119.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +3.0wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Rutgers | 17c | 118$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.06 | 244 | 36.9%90 W · 154 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd392…e400backed Rutgers | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb449…547dbacked Rutgers | 10c | 105.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -52%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Penn State | 78c | 105.41$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.63 | 237 | 51.1%121 W · 116 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fe9…9c50backed Penn State | 57c | 104.53$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.53 | 73 | 57.5%42 W · 31 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ee…e1acbacked Rutgers | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -51%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3304…7048backed Penn State | 63c | 79.37$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.37 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe68a…5e25backed Rutgers | 21c | 76$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 118 | 44.1%52 W · 66 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5dd…b094backed Rutgers | 24c | 75$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a21…0229backed Rutgers | 22c | 67.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab72…b70dbacked Rutgers | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36bf…2864backed Penn State | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 75 | 34.7%26 W · 49 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb0…3182backed Rutgers | 22c | 47.01$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +45.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Penn State | 65c | 43$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.25 | 632 | 43.7%276 W · 356 L | +34.8wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +138.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a0d…7545backed Penn State | 58c | 36.21$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.21 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.22per pick | 63cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc862…755fbacked Penn State | 75c | 33.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 67cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda53…9209backed Rutgers | 39c | 28.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19bc…7d78backed Penn State | 71c | 24.8$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.29 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa242…cd4bbacked Penn State | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42f1…e5a1backed Penn State | 77c | 14.25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.29 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +52.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Penn State vs. Rutgersthis page
- Penn State vs. Rutgers: O/U 54.5Over won
- Penn State vs. Rutgers: O/U 55.5Over won
- Spread: Penn State (-13.5)Rutgers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.