Asian League · resolved market
Shandong Taishan FC vs. Beijing Guoan FC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8116703d24f9d3e570e8c3ef21003c49e16c6543ae490bdbe6f6489612ad2462
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $131,276
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $131,276 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 8c | 49,050$4,060 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44,989.64 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +57.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f1…7da3backed Over | 7c | 34,905$2,489 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32,415.7 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +455.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x753b…7ff5backed Over | 2c | 6,000$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,886 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 6cpaid | +2,531.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7537…801dbacked Over | 2c | 4,100$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,008 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 6cpaid | +2,128.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 64c | 2,924$1,858 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,858.04 | 5,963 | 46%2,744 W · 3,219 L | +46.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12d9…01bbbacked Over | 30c | 2,528$764 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,763.57 | 245 | 23.3%57 W · 188 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c10…544abacked Over | 2c | 2,500$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,450 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.98per pick | 2cpaid | +4,900%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x704e…7434backed Under | 28c | 1,800$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$503.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Over | 30c | 1,017$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$713.28 | 119 | 31.9%38 W · 81 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x816e…2663backed Under | 9c | 761.89$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.81 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +3.5wins | +0.19per pick | 42cpaid | +96.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Over | 74c | 485.14$359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.14 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | -5.3wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…5e8abacked Over | 3c | 450$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$438 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 2cpaid | +188.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9de4…7f2ebacked Under | 68c | 341.41$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.96 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.2wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9794…32c9backed Under | 32c | 313.34$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.27 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 26c | 301.98$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.52 | 225 | 55.1%124 W · 101 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c1e…fe89backed Over | 48c | 222.17$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Over | 72c | 200.07$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.02 | 267 | 49.4%132 W · 135 L | +7.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…ab7dbacked Over | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 114 | 58.8%67 W · 47 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef4a…0314backed Over | 68c | 164.14$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.52 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fd4…676ebacked Over | 68c | 149.2$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.74 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dea…3792backed Under | 69c | 145.51$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…7fc1backed Over | 33c | 136.48$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.64 | 121 | 46.3%56 W · 65 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeefb…d11fbacked Under | 70c | 136$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49ca…5944backed Under | 74c | 135.52$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb38c…b2c9backed Under | 29c | 120$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.8 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21db…2a42backed Over | 44c | 113.64$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.64 | 115 | 43.5%50 W · 65 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bcf…402abacked Over | 35c | 75$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 95 | 25.3%24 W · 71 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 32c | 43.17$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.19 | 245 | 48.6%119 W · 126 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7a…3ce8backed Over | 74c | 40.54$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 47 | 59.6%28 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Over | 27c | 40.35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.28 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +2.9wins | +0.32per pick | 23cpaid | +131.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef1…cea5backed Under | 66c | 24.14$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.85 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd0d…cdf9backed Under | 74c | 20.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd239…2083backed Under | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -3.5wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Shandong Taishan FC vs. Beijing Guoan FC: O/U 2.5this page
- Shandong Taishan FC vs. Beijing Guoan FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Shandong Taishan FC vs. Beijing Guoan FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Shandong Taishan FC vs. Beijing Guoan FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Shandong Taishan FC vs. Beijing Guoan FC: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.