Tennis · resolved market
Morelia: Alan Magadan vs Alan Rubio
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x811954f2ab7bc0c37d425b4c3c23b7447021b425a4b6f595b75ad36de1db54ce
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Alan Magadanof Alan Magadan, Alan Rubio
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,664
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,664 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe5af…f9e3backed Alan Rubio | 19c | 4,136$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 302 | 25.8%78 W · 224 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Alan Rubio | 5c | 2,851$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.54 | 2,746 | 30.8%846 W · 1,900 L | -67.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1621…572cbacked Alan Rubio | 23c | 1,122$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258 | 478 | 52.1%249 W · 229 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde9f…d43cbacked Alan Magadan | 66c | 868.62$572 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.07 | 6,652 | 50.7%3,373 W · 3,279 L | +263.6wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x223f…2050backed Alan Rubio | 41c | 609.08$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.31 | 507 | 31.2%158 W · 349 L | -41.2wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd871…6bbabacked Alan Rubio | 54c | 490$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.72 | 58 | 41.4%24 W · 34 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fea…78b1backed Alan Rubio | 6c | 353.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 377 | 41.4%156 W · 221 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Alan Rubio | 54c | 197.73$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.78 | 7,183 | 49.7%3,568 W · 3,615 L | +112.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Alan Rubio | 52c | 190.51$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,615 | 50.6%817 W · 798 L | -17.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc629…5e51backed Alan Rubio | 54c | 186.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 573 | 49.6%284 W · 289 L | -2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4411…985ebacked Alan Rubio | 13c | 152.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,150 | 54.1%1,164 W · 986 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Alan Magadan | 69c | 152.41$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.96 | 2,982 | 39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd038…8f51backed Alan Rubio | 27c | 145.1$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.19 | 4,288 | 40.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L | -139.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Alan Magadan | 47c | 143.01$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.17 | 1,980 | 46.2%915 W · 1,065 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fab…708bbacked Alan Rubio | 19c | 128.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.7 | 1,276 | 30.4%388 W · 888 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Alan Magadan | 46c | 110.53$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.69 | 220 | 33.6%74 W · 146 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde48…accbbacked Alan Magadan | 48c | 103.58$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.9 | 72 | 54.2%39 W · 33 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Alan Rubio | 26c | 101.74$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.22 | 3,270 | 13.8%450 W · 2,820 L | -549.1wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Alan Rubio | 38c | 99.32$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.74 | 384 | 46.4%178 W · 206 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c56…0615backed Alan Rubio | 35c | 97.16$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.22 | 594 | 40.2%239 W · 355 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70f9…f25bbacked Alan Magadan | 46c | 88$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.52 | 992 | 55.9%555 W · 437 L | +32.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Alan Rubio | 26c | 85.86$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 572 | 52.3%299 W · 273 L | +17.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe52e…ac6dbacked Alan Rubio | 14c | 78.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 170 | 51.8%88 W · 82 L | +10.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Alan Magadan | 46c | 75.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.04 | 770 | 47.9%369 W · 401 L | -19.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd57b…d3b7backed Alan Rubio | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 45cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcba8…11a2backed Alan Magadan | 47c | 63.2$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 100 | 63%63 W · 37 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1121…6604backed Alan Magadan | 46c | 54$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.16 | 228 | 47.4%108 W · 120 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf02…3a63backed Alan Magadan | 46c | 54$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.16 | 272 | 46.3%126 W · 146 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0a…745dbacked Alan Magadan | 46c | 54$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.16 | 292 | 44.5%130 W · 162 L | -8.4wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Alan Magadan | 71c | 50.47$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.58 | 6,840 | 48.8%3,341 W · 3,499 L | +58.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b4…8d0bbacked Alan Magadan | 55c | 46.88$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.05 | 113 | 52.2%59 W · 54 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f12…de45backed Alan Rubio | 47c | 43.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Alan Rubio | 33c | 41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 1,265 | 29.2%370 W · 895 L | -13.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Alan Rubio | 51c | 40.55$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.68 | 1,410 | 38.4%542 W · 868 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -25%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Alan Magadan | 47c | 31.66$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.78 | 2,440 | 51.7%1,261 W · 1,179 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61fa…7f62backed Alan Magadan | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 464 | 53%246 W · 218 L | -10.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a0e…b0babacked Alan Magadan | 46c | 22$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 468 | 48.5%227 W · 241 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b9…948abacked Alan Rubio | 52c | 21.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 423 | 58.6%248 W · 175 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.