Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 76°F or higher on April 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x81424c7182cafb266946fbf522e54266735423e0ec54e01d863ce4a416c31c13
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,275
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,392
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,275 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1eea…00c5backed No | 0c | 12,978$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.64 | 224 | 50.4%113 W · 111 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked No | 6c | 699.96$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb697…9c56backed No | 5c | 660.17$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.18 | 109 | 24.8%27 W · 82 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +45%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1385…e96abacked No | 8c | 395.65$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.27 | 137 | 32.1%44 W · 93 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb532…8577backed No | 8c | 394.13$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.9 | 191 | 33.5%64 W · 127 L | +10.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 11c | 293.48$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.66 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x216e…fda6backed No | 12c | 275.68$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.13 | 71 | 18.3%13 W · 58 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1685…97abbacked No | 18c | 272.28$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.01 | 167 | 40.1%67 W · 100 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x991e…d5cdbacked No | 4c | 242.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 73c | 235.73$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.55 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cae…def2backed Yes | 76c | 234.59$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.74 | 36 | 69.4%25 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 7c | 228.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 14c | 153.75$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.07 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed No | 14c | 149.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f93…480bbacked No | 23c | 146.13$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.15 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe57d…043abacked No | 15c | 133.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 87 | 46%40 W · 47 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a91…983fbacked No | 32c | 119.17$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.42 | 139 | 42.4%59 W · 80 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 28c | 109.36$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.51 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 79c | 91.29$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.17 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 14c | 84.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2995…8410backed No | 15c | 80.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 196 | 32.7%64 W · 132 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 28c | 80.25$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.78 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4e…a30dbacked No | 24c | 80.23$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.07 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb627…d968backed No | 17c | 79.11$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 78 | 46.2%36 W · 42 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked No | 15c | 77.56$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e6…762ebacked No | 19c | 68.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.28 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e2…e5f5backed Yes | 80c | 61.45$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.45 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 58cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 42c | 60$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.1 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4066…2407backed No | 31c | 52.61$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.28 | 132 | 43.9%58 W · 74 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae3…3401backed Yes | 70c | 51$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 274 | 63.9%175 W · 99 L | -15.0wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd04c…c640backed Yes | 75c | 47.87$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.82 | 233 | 49.8%116 W · 117 L | -15.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -27%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe00a…330ebacked Yes | 76c | 44.92$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 207 | 50.2%104 W · 103 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bb…ae21backed Yes | 76c | 44.17$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.45 | 353 | 62.9%222 W · 131 L | +16.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ede…ad2cbacked Yes | 77c | 38.22$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.79 | 82 | 29.3%24 W · 58 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59c6…ad9dbacked Yes | 67c | 29.07$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.74 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9837…701ebacked Yes | 68c | 25.37$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.01 | 56 | 69.6%39 W · 17 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x89cc…b925backed Yes | 78c | 22.68$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.99 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 47cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90c4…2fa9backed Yes | 76c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30c8…446cbacked Yes | 74c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.46 | 52 | 25%13 W · 39 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6b5…4768backed Yes | 70c | 20.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.31 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7677…eda1backed Yes | 66c | 19.9$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.69 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27a1…adc6backed Yes | 73c | 18.49$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.99 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4667…20f2backed Yes | 66c | 17.31$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 41 | 17.1%7 W · 34 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c42…6360backed Yes | 74c | 15.08$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.94 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +86.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be 76°F or higher on April 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 72-73°F on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 74-75°F on April 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.