Tennis · resolved market
ITF M15 Mistelbach Men: Thilo Behrmann vs Nikita Mashtakov
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x817db3451039c79fcf1592ec6c1a61ec9967eb0efd4eaa5531a033baeb90b5ce
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nikita Mashtakovof Thilo Behrmann, Nikita Mashtakov
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,604
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,760
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,604 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Thilo Behrmann | 46c | 1,693$783 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$782.54 | 11,325 | 43.4%4,912 W · 6,413 L | +18.6wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3663…8950backed Nikita Mashtakov | 40c | 1,070$432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$637.6 | 390 | 43.6%170 W · 220 L | +21.8wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c99…8b23backed Nikita Mashtakov | 56c | 539.55$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.55 | 154 | 59.1%91 W · 63 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Nikita Mashtakov | 51c | 221.37$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.29 | 7,745 | 50.6%3,916 W · 3,829 L | +93.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Nikita Mashtakov | 63c | 204.94$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.02 | 6,419 | 46.4%2,978 W · 3,441 L | -39.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Nikita Mashtakov | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 1,406 | 45.3%637 W · 769 L | +43.1wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64e8…b506backed Thilo Behrmann | 63c | 111.54$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.27 | 104 | 46.2%48 W · 56 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18d8…da3bbacked Thilo Behrmann | 50c | 105.53$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.54 | 250 | 48.4%121 W · 129 L | +22.9wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Nikita Mashtakov | 60c | 98.61$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.01 | 1,624 | 54.4%883 W · 741 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13f7…85d5backed Nikita Mashtakov | 58c | 89.47$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.23 | 1,252 | 38.8%486 W · 766 L | -23.0wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf8c…e040backed Thilo Behrmann | 44c | 72.77$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.05 | 597 | 38.2%228 W · 369 L | -27.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd32d…23b4backed Thilo Behrmann | 50c | 66.35$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.37 | 79 | 53.2%42 W · 37 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Nikita Mashtakov | 57c | 61.49$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.28 | 6,411 | 54.4%3,486 W · 2,925 L | +283.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5513…de2abacked Nikita Mashtakov | 61c | 53.75$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.79 | 737 | 38.8%286 W · 451 L | -10.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Nikita Mashtakov | 62c | 52.76$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.97 | 8,396 | 42.6%3,578 W · 4,818 L | -162.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1d7…47a4backed Thilo Behrmann | 57c | 52.7$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.94 | 1,011 | 41.4%419 W · 592 L | -23.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7d0…681ebacked Thilo Behrmann | 59c | 50.71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.69 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec17…0af9backed Nikita Mashtakov | 37c | 40.05$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.23 | 126 | 39.7%50 W · 76 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3c…8290backed Nikita Mashtakov | 45c | 39.65$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.71 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -4.9wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e3…f1bdbacked Nikita Mashtakov | 63c | 38.52$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.31 | 805 | 58.6%472 W · 333 L | +15.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86f8…2ed6backed Thilo Behrmann | 55c | 35.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -7.5wins | -0.30per pick | 58cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5974…5c32backed Nikita Mashtakov | 46c | 32.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.61 | 443 | 65.9%292 W · 151 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ad…5097backed Nikita Mashtakov | 54c | 22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.05 | 257 | 68.1%175 W · 82 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d10…b3d0backed Thilo Behrmann | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 819 | 59.3%486 W · 333 L | +2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5317…9a3bbacked Nikita Mashtakov | 62c | 19.96$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.49 | 105 | 43.8%46 W · 59 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- ITF M15 Mistelbach Men: Thilo Behrmann vs Nikita Mashtakovthis page
- ITF M15 Mistelbach Men: Completed Match: Thilo Behrmann vs Nikita MashtakovYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.