Tennis · resolved market
Ugo Humbert vs. Mattia Bellucci: Total Sets O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x81b953d1d407ae6b10dd01169133683172fb58df41a2ce64a6c6f88ccb8b9066
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Over 2.5of Over 2.5, Under 2.5
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,290
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,290
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,290 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9cb9…32f2backed Over 2.5 | 43c | 9,852$4,215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,637.54 | 528 | 44.7%236 W · 292 L | +30.8wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Under 2.5 | 57c | 5,937$3,384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,383.85 | 144 | 50.7%73 W · 71 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b66…336abacked Under 2.5 | 58c | 1,034$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 268 | 53.7%144 W · 124 L | +18.6wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x79d7…893dbacked Under 2.5 | 57c | 526.32$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Under 2.5 | 57c | 505.43$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.1 | 781 | 52.8%412 W · 369 L | +21.3wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under 2.5 | 58c | 461$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.3 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f18…c9fdbacked Under 2.5 | 57c | 377.19$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215 | 99 | 49.5%49 W · 50 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc08…6b85backed Under 2.5 | 57c | 353.98$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.77 | 1,103 | 52.9%583 W · 520 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Over 2.5 | 53c | 326.21$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.32 | 1,688 | 45.4%766 W · 922 L | -10.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under 2.5 | 47c | 324.32$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.43 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Under 2.5 | 59c | 220$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.8 | 846 | 40%338 W · 508 L | -22.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac9e…cca3backed Under 2.5 | 57c | 196.49$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 218 | 56.4%123 W · 95 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…3813backed Under 2.5 | 58c | 62$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.08 | 1,168 | 49.1%573 W · 595 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Under 2.5 | 57c | 34$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 968 | 44.4%430 W · 538 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1b6…e0a0backed Under 2.5 | 60c | 26.67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 132 | 62.9%83 W · 49 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5a…724cbacked Under 2.5 | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 147 | 61.2%90 W · 57 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd78e…6421backed Under 2.5 | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 935 | 57.3%536 W · 399 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd55…133cbacked Under 2.5 | 57c | 17.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 66cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Ugo Humbert vs. Mattia Bellucci: Total Sets O/U 2.5this page
- Lexus Eastbourne Open: Ugo Humbert vs Mattia BellucciUgo Humbert won
- Set 1 Winner: Humbert vs BellucciHumbert won
- Set Handicap: Humbert (-1.5) vs Bellucci (+1.5)Bellucci won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.