Asian League · resolved market
FC Tōkyō vs. Cerezo Ōsaka: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x82094c5f9791e08f0b46b4531e9815fbdf41be0ccf312b102f37e1315ca5e8e0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,807
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,207
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,807 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 47c | 625.19$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.5 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…d743backed Over | 16c | 622.94$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.67 | 98 | 24.5%24 W · 74 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6303…9556backed Under | 57c | 350.88$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.88 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.15per pick | 57cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0176…910ebacked Under | 41c | 328.1$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.48 | 97 | 56.7%55 W · 42 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6562…4e48backed Over | 72c | 321.77$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.82 | 138 | 55.8%77 W · 61 L | -8.2wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 48c | 241.6$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.28 | 2,491 | 40%997 W · 1,494 L | -18.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70b2…92d6backed Over | 17c | 214.65$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.44 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d63…2e49backed Over | 54c | 166.17$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.73 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +116%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd684…7e92backed Over | 35c | 99.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +141.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Over | 42c | 96.39$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.06 | 564 | 45.4%256 W · 308 L | -25.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4c…2e02backed Over | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 134 | 63.4%85 W · 49 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 40c | 79.34$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.46 | 1,356 | 45.5%617 W · 739 L | +15.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed Under | 52c | 68.64$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.64 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 62c | 68.1$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.1 | 1,647 | 36.2%596 W · 1,051 L | -34.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc9…ab1cbacked Over | 42c | 61.57$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…1212backed Under | 48c | 60.42$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.42 | 257 | 42%108 W · 149 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d5…2b9cbacked Over | 50c | 57.89$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.76 | 56 | 26.8%15 W · 41 L | -4.6wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +58.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c3e…3c4cbacked Over | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 199 | 65.3%130 W · 69 L | +27.3wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xcef8…a4edbacked Under | 70c | 44.08$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.36 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +73.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd0e…cdf0backed Over | 36c | 44$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe50e…45c5backed Over | 54c | 37.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 81.3%13 W · 3 L | +3.9wins | +0.24per pick | 57cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Under | 65c | 36.05$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.62 | 96 | 53.1%51 W · 45 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 40c | 31.61$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 375 | 62.7%235 W · 140 L | +61.4wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 73c | 25.9$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.91 | 770 | 56.2%433 W · 337 L | +40.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x614b…ca37backed Over | 69c | 24.64$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d70…d0a6backed Under | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Tōkyō vs. Cerezo Ōsaka: O/U 4.5this page
- FC Tōkyō vs. Cerezo Ōsaka: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FC Tōkyō vs. Cerezo Ōsaka: O/U 0.5Over won
- FC Tōkyō vs. Cerezo Ōsaka: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Tōkyō vs. Cerezo Ōsaka: O/U 2.5Over won
- FC Tōkyō vs. Cerezo Ōsaka: O/U 3.5Over won
- FC Tōkyō vs. Cerezo Ōsaka: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Cerezo Ōsaka (-1.5)Cerezo Ōsaka won
- Spread: FC Tōkyō (-1.5)Cerezo Ōsaka won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.