Tennis · resolved market
Shanghai Rolex Masters: Yunchaokete Bu vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x821a8859a089f7cac1064b69ac457f18dfc45d3acc6f9f2027dd6583bcbb84b3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Buof Bu, Cerundolo
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,960
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,246
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,960 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8191…8a35backed Bu | 80c | 2,304$1,835 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$468.99 | 136 | 41.9%57 W · 79 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60cc…f0dfbacked Bu | 63c | 2,000$1,260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$739.99 | 145 | 49%71 W · 74 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Bu | 72c | 1,169$847 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.65 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Bu | 75c | 958.76$716 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.08 | 11,666 | 43.4%5,059 W · 6,607 L | +22.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Cerundolo | 37c | 810.81$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bee…ca01backed Cerundolo | 32c | 677$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.92 | 120 | 50%60 W · 60 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Cerundolo | 36c | 652.05$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.22 | 652 | 42.8%279 W · 373 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Cerundolo | 27c | 652$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.4 | 819 | 38.9%319 W · 500 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5046…6a3bbacked Cerundolo | 13c | 641.98$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.14 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7181…4c0abacked Cerundolo | 32c | 500.69$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.64 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 29cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf575…e0ebbacked Cerundolo | 37c | 405.41$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 204 | 31.9%65 W · 139 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b98…0e50backed Cerundolo | 23c | 344.92$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.64 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -4.2wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe49c…773ebacked Cerundolo | 37c | 270.11$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.94 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Cerundolo | 25c | 260$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.1 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5652…ff34backed Cerundolo | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 121 | 34.7%42 W · 79 L | -5.8wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61c1…0513backed Bu | 78c | 128.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 1,287 | 60.7%781 W · 506 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa263…6cf0backed Cerundolo | 14c | 107.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 175 | 38.3%67 W · 108 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Cerundolo | 35c | 101.77$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.61 | 627 | 42.4%266 W · 361 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb78d…1d48backed Bu | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 53 | 60.4%32 W · 21 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…7a56backed Cerundolo | 26c | 97.29$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2,339 | 46.6%1,090 W · 1,249 L | +55.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf5c…48f9backed Cerundolo | 16c | 90$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 154 | 47.4%73 W · 81 L | +14.1wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.