Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs GamerLegion - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8255fef5cc9ffbc2e4374d652bc7998f656d1e6f5953cb59195bbe6ac16e3726
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Natus Vincereof Natus Vincere, GamerLegion
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,736
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,576
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,736 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xac0d…b006backed Natus Vincere | 73c | 7,504$5,478 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,026.08 | 106 | 61.3%65 W · 41 L | +10.4wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae8…c2a8backed GamerLegion | 28c | 4,560$1,259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,259 | 130 | 45.4%59 W · 71 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked GamerLegion | 26c | 3,896$1,024 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,024.01 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e3…1a64backed Natus Vincere | 73c | 3,411$2,502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$908.68 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +84.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7600…4478backed GamerLegion | 26c | 2,000$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520 | 226 | 47.3%107 W · 119 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd17d…d0eebacked Natus Vincere | 73c | 1,727$1,253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$473.39 | 192 | 46.4%89 W · 103 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde17…68d2backed GamerLegion | 27c | 1,113$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.91 | 179 | 50.3%90 W · 89 L | +14.7wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked GamerLegion | 23c | 893.39$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.66 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bcb…b05abacked GamerLegion | 27c | 500$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 380 | 49.2%187 W · 193 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +168.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed GamerLegion | 32c | 452.73$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.73 | 894 | 40.3%360 W · 534 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd397…5052backed Natus Vincere | 68c | 438.24$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.24 | 234 | 65%152 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed GamerLegion | 33c | 269$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.77 | 592 | 50.5%299 W · 293 L | -20.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e94…4186backed GamerLegion | 27c | 179$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.33 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe06c…62aebacked GamerLegion | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa541…d860backed GamerLegion | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 30 | 3.3%1 W · 29 L | -3.6wins | -0.12per pick | 15cpaid | -81.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd9…f0d5backed Natus Vincere | 74c | 85.34$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.19 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63e1…802abacked GamerLegion | 21c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 43 | 25.6%11 W · 32 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed GamerLegion | 27c | 54.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 628 | 41.1%258 W · 370 L | -17.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3703…2795backed GamerLegion | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 153 | 41.2%63 W · 90 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs GamerLegion - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs GamerLegion (BO3)Natus Vincere won
- Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs GamerLegion - Game 2 WinnerNatus Vincere won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.