Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will Bologna FC 1909 vs. FC Red Bull Salzburg end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x82745518c28650ca4fb2773163a82f3200f0b9493a945fd5e6eb4968e49fa5d6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,929
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,711
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,929 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 11 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 71c | 598.09$426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.84 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb875…68a8backed No | 70c | 578$405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.4 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d65…7d4abacked Yes | 30c | 500$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -53%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5006…139bbacked No | 71c | 200$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f1…23eebacked Yes | 21c | 139.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 142 | 33.1%47 W · 95 L | -9.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x51be…1805backed Yes | 16c | 107.69$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d24…a93fbacked No | 70c | 72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 118 | 69.5%82 W · 36 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcef7…e7d7backed Yes | 30c | 72$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 83 | 45.8%38 W · 45 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb745…981bbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -50%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 28c | 37.53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefb2…b043backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 75cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bologna FC 1909 vs. FC Red Bull Salzburg end in a draw?this page
- Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2025-11-27?Yes won
- Will FC Red Bull Salzburg win on 2025-11-27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.