Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will FC Red Bull Salzburg win on 2025-11-27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x48a2b52e7f4ff7bdf76f13eee686ba4ba9677439371310f03d9dd756cbc228a6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $60,053
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $57,781
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $60,053 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 11c | 6,847$754 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$754.19 | 199 | 34.7%69 W · 130 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x723c…01ebbacked Yes | 12c | 4,440$516 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$516 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Yes | 11c | 4,099$451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450.89 | 260 | 22.3%58 W · 202 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Yes | 11c | 3,457$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.3 | 147 | 40.8%60 W · 87 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcef7…e7d7backed Yes | 22c | 3,000$646 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$646.03 | 83 | 45.8%38 W · 45 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97e0…8194backed Yes | 10c | 2,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 89 | 46.1%41 W · 48 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Yes | 10c | 1,500$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.99 | 219 | 25.6%56 W · 163 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf699…07e1backed Yes | 11c | 1,487$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.6 | 121 | 66.9%81 W · 40 L | +17.2wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Yes | 10c | 1,259$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.9 | 87 | 43.7%38 W · 49 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe952…bde4backed Yes | 11c | 1,243$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.76 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 12c | 1,120$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.88 | 80 | 27.5%22 W · 58 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7441…cb79backed Yes | 11c | 1,000$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -76.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35fb…4ce5backed Yes | 12c | 1,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fd1…4ea6backed Yes | 11c | 969.23$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee7…0ba8backed Yes | 10c | 800$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Yes | 9c | 698.67$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.88 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6640…e3febacked Yes | 12c | 583.33$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c28…ff31backed Yes | 11c | 500$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fa2…cf15backed Yes | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 18cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7df…27cdbacked Yes | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…63f2backed Yes | 11c | 499.79$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.98 | 190 | 27.4%52 W · 138 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…3ef7backed Yes | 12c | 458.33$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfe…8aaebacked Yes | 11c | 454.55$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…d4debacked Yes | 12c | 416.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 10c | 299.51$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.45 | 50 | 30%15 W · 35 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb188…5cf0backed Yes | 12c | 291.67$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9154…8f2dbacked Yes | 12c | 250$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee44…0082backed Yes | 12c | 250$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Yes | 14c | 200$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e6c…3b0fbacked Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d9…d7f5backed Yes | 11c | 181.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb392…28a5backed Yes | 13c | 176.92$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb0b…e2a3backed Yes | 12c | 166.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Yes | 11c | 150$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ee…e211backed Yes | 11c | 129.91$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x346e…1eb7backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4f…f957backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x508e…648bbacked Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0843…97f5backed Yes | 12c | 90.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa69a…5966backed Yes | 12c | 85.17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Red Bull Salzburg win on 2025-11-27?this page
- Will Bologna FC 1909 vs. FC Red Bull Salzburg end in a draw?No won
- Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2025-11-27?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.