Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 25°C or below on February 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x827d83f4f0e61d142da0a9b4e554e9502c0d9b7d4284363a66d76997f4c6dee8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,513
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,254
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,513 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1b22…8945backed Yes | 16c | 312.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 253 | 41.5%105 W · 148 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7cde…1af7backed Yes | 8c | 242.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 201 | 46.3%93 W · 108 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2df9…effbbacked No | 75c | 207.75$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.05 | 116 | 59.5%69 W · 47 L | -6.0wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47af…3999backed Yes | 14c | 199.98$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 326 | 52.1%170 W · 156 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8209…62b6backed Yes | 7c | 191.57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.82 | 96 | 25%24 W · 72 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e2e…d589backed Yes | 10c | 164.23$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb120…20a3backed Yes | 12c | 155.57$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.95 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9435…e478backed Yes | 9c | 137.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x645a…c9b0backed Yes | 13c | 119.06$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +59.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bb…ae21backed No | 79c | 118.04$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.77 | 353 | 62.9%222 W · 131 L | +16.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3f…3578backed Yes | 14c | 111.92$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf18…f5c3backed Yes | 10c | 105.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 110 | 44.5%49 W · 61 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes | 22c | 97.59$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.66 | 368 | 19.6%72 W · 296 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c8…d7c5backed No | 79c | 94.94$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.94 | 241 | 49.8%120 W · 121 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked Yes | 16c | 74.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 63c | 69.9$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.57 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Yes | 15c | 66.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4914…722ebacked Yes | 34c | 59.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 54 | 29.6%16 W · 38 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 79c | 44.47$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.12 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…e042backed No | 61c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.8 | 445 | 53.3%237 W · 208 L | -21.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb75…d8e0backed Yes | 28c | 39.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked No | 32c | 34$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.06 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a5a…77e5backed No | 49c | 32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.42 | 97 | 24.7%24 W · 73 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9735…9b4ebacked Yes | 58c | 25.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 49 | 61.2%30 W · 19 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x44c4…e3bfbacked Yes | 40c | 25.83$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x73dc…70b2backed Yes | 47c | 24.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x286b…91d3backed Yes | 69c | 17.84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 25°C or below on February 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 26°C on February 25?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 27°C on February 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 28°C on February 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 29°C on February 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 30°C on February 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 31°C on February 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 33°C or higher on February 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.