Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 26°C on February 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd69bb18606d93fe7ce56bc094c4fd3877d88f0c3eb5c963e4f2fcc3b24e1efab
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,575
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,890
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,575 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbd05…e576backed Yes | 36c | 2,761$994 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,767.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x718b…1b93backed Yes | 36c | 2,642$951 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,690.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe06e…12ccbacked No | 64c | 1,420$909 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$908.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7016…8439backed No | 64c | 1,342$859 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$858.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfacd…c113backed No | 64c | 1,341$858 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$858.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9675…82a0backed No | 64c | 1,300$832 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$832 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 6c | 359.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xdc09…467fbacked Yes | 26c | 149.99$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.5 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 31c | 133.67$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.74 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x44c4…e3bfbacked Yes | 67c | 117.89$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.41 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 21c | 111.85$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.39 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefae…3acebacked Yes | 17c | 105.92$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.4 | 268 | 27.2%73 W · 195 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fdf…a680backed Yes | 29c | 105.06$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.6 | 44 | 29.5%13 W · 31 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0645…c08ebacked Yes | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.28 | 63 | 38.1%24 W · 39 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a38…ada9backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 236 | 33.1%78 W · 158 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a8b…d4a3backed Yes | 45c | 88.49$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +121.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed No | 67c | 58.08$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.64 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x645a…c9b0backed Yes | 31c | 57.34$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.34 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +59.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 71c | 55.95$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.84 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf05b…d0b7backed Yes | 74c | 54.75$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 296 | 42.9%127 W · 169 L | +19.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2164…07b1backed Yes | 29c | 54.24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +247.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5eee…bac2backed No | 77c | 47.82$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.9 | 60 | 45%27 W · 33 L | -6.3wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9e2f…1adfbacked Yes | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +64.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 50c | 35.79$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.88 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3925…4572backed Yes | 31c | 35.64$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.69 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9435…e478backed No | 72c | 34.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.18 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e40…224ebacked No | 77c | 32.63$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 123 | 57.7%71 W · 52 L | -10.9wins | -0.09per pick | 67cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3543…c63fbacked No | 64c | 32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.48 | 59 | 47.5%28 W · 31 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 60c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a28…7f61backed Yes | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 85 | 57.6%49 W · 36 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 58c | 28.77$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.79 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 61c | 21.89$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b22…8945backed No | 65c | 20.86$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 253 | 41.5%105 W · 148 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x13a8…642bbacked No | 79c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -3.5wins | -0.12per pick | 66cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 62c | 18.62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 26°C on February 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 25°C or below on February 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 27°C on February 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 28°C on February 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 29°C on February 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 30°C on February 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 31°C on February 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 33°C or higher on February 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.