Tennis · resolved market
Set 1 Winner: Tsitsipas vs Fonseca
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x827e64b87aa13669c1f3af184f4d0cd53fbf316df380b5c1f702cb6164059f75
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Fonsecaof Tsitsipas, Fonseca
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,034
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,947
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,034 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa526…c9f9backed Tsitsipas | 43c | 6,179$2,673 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,673.34 | 31 | 67.7%21 W · 10 L | +4.1wins | +0.13per pick | 55cpaid | +21%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Fonseca | 57c | 5,095$2,919 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,176.06 | 8,828 | 36.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L | -193.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c79…ddf6backed Fonseca | 67c | 746.27$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.27 | 122 | 42.6%52 W · 70 L | -18.8wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -27%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xdcb3…da93backed Fonseca | 60c | 739.46$447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.56 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +101.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50ca…bfddbacked Tsitsipas | 40c | 309.27$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.71 | 603 | 42%253 W · 350 L | +11.1wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Tsitsipas | 40c | 217.96$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.18 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Fonseca | 63c | 173.5$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.59 | 2,417 | 50.7%1,226 W · 1,191 L | +78.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3fe…3f90backed Fonseca | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.93 | 52 | 42.3%22 W · 30 L | -5.8wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -20%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Fonseca | 38c | 123.52$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.77 | 6,449 | 46.3%2,987 W · 3,462 L | -42.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30dc…768ebacked Fonseca | 67c | 104.48$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.48 | 115 | 64.3%74 W · 41 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Fonseca | 57c | 76.58$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.13 | 950 | 50.1%476 W · 474 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…d542backed Fonseca | 45c | 44.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.73 | 1,837 | 59.2%1,088 W · 749 L | +8.4wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3599…5338backed Fonseca | 55c | 43.64$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.64 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x253f…4253backed Tsitsipas | 48c | 39.58$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 92 | 48.9%45 W · 47 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4738…e64abacked Fonseca | 49c | 32.21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.51 | 118 | 53.4%63 W · 55 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x449f…2d2ebacked Tsitsipas | 60c | 20.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 254 | 47.6%121 W · 133 L | -10.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set 1 Winner: Tsitsipas vs Fonsecathis page
- National Bank Open: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Joao FonsecaJoao Fonseca won
- Set 2 Winner: Tsitsipas vs FonsecaFonseca won
- Set Handicap: Fonseca (-1.5) vs Tsitsipas (+1.5)Fonseca won
- Tsitsipas vs. Fonseca: Match O/U 22.5Over won
- Tsitsipas vs. Fonseca: Match O/U 23.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.