Tennis · resolved market
Tsitsipas vs. Fonseca: Match O/U 22.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x06ef88a8dd8bb8b38e8b671fc03ae326dcbb5c4ef0af62d4b42f7f2bed7d5021
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,112
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,196
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,112 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6157…9fb4backed Over | 57c | 3,729$2,121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,607.77 | 97 | 64.9%63 W · 34 L | +9.7wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Under | 43c | 2,509$1,079 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,078.78 | 4,070 | 39.7%1,617 W · 2,453 L | +92.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 36c | 638.38$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.56 | 4,126 | 44.6%1,842 W · 2,284 L | +13.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6407…d360backed Under | 43c | 620.16$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.67 | 965 | 41.5%400 W · 565 L | +14.0wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe02…b9f5backed Over | 64c | 609.38$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.38 | 60 | 36.7%22 W · 38 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Under | 44c | 599.99$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264 | 6,998 | 39.7%2,779 W · 4,219 L | -16.7wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked Over | 56c | 470$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.8 | 1,013 | 50.1%508 W · 505 L | +36.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 44c | 455.98$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.76 | 7,100 | 49.7%3,530 W · 3,570 L | +107.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Under | 43c | 449.1$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.11 | 1,143 | 41.3%472 W · 671 L | +23.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Under | 44c | 221.99$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.78 | 663 | 47.1%312 W · 351 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb88a…f6adbacked Over | 56c | 194$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.36 | 113 | 45.1%51 W · 62 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +14%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5633…59bcbacked Over | 56c | 194$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.36 | 124 | 46%57 W · 67 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa917…4e8dbacked Over | 56c | 161.97$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.27 | 115 | 48.7%56 W · 59 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0f…b7aebacked Under | 44c | 127.75$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.21 | 401 | 36.4%146 W · 255 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2914…aff6backed Over | 56c | 119.2$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.45 | 94 | 56.4%53 W · 41 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Under | 44c | 106$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.64 | 288 | 50.3%145 W · 143 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x536e…4fd5backed Over | 57c | 87.51$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.63 | 133 | 49.6%66 W · 67 L | -7.8wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 43c | 81$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.83 | 7,710 | 47.8%3,685 W · 4,025 L | +42.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb1…1002backed Over | 56c | 74.96$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.98 | 114 | 51.8%59 W · 55 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36dd…bfccbacked Over | 57c | 70.28$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.22 | 52 | 61.5%32 W · 20 L | +4.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc8…e209backed Under | 44c | 68.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 396 | 48%190 W · 206 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56fa…30cebacked Under | 44c | 68.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 203 | 36.5%74 W · 129 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6888…4c79backed Over | 56c | 56$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.64 | 255 | 57.3%146 W · 109 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdcc…e1f9backed Over | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd6…f3c8backed Over | 56c | 47.01$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.68 | 472 | 51.3%242 W · 230 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Over | 57c | 44.19$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 481 | 51.6%248 W · 233 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdf…58e1backed Under | 44c | 34.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 120 | 35.8%43 W · 77 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56c4…fce5backed Over | 57c | 33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.19 | 808 | 56.9%460 W · 348 L | +18.6wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9c…8927backed Over | 58c | 29$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.18 | 83 | 50.6%42 W · 41 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a51…bf4cbacked Over | 56c | 22.39$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 201 | 55.7%112 W · 89 L | +11.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Tsitsipas vs. Fonseca: Match O/U 22.5this page
- National Bank Open: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Joao FonsecaJoao Fonseca won
- Set 1 Winner: Tsitsipas vs FonsecaFonseca won
- Set 2 Winner: Tsitsipas vs FonsecaFonseca won
- Set Handicap: Fonseca (-1.5) vs Tsitsipas (+1.5)Fonseca won
- Tsitsipas vs. Fonseca: Match O/U 23.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.