Mls · resolved market
Will FC Cincinnati win on 2025-11-08?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8289922d22d32b81613fcb46ac9d2a3de7d8892b336dca21f267d884a2de0439
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,062
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,125
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,062 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 64c | 2,209$1,414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,413.74 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…57e7backed Yes | 36c | 2,000$720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,280 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 64c | 1,471$943 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$942.69 | 257 | 61.5%158 W · 99 L | +17.4wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked No | 64c | 944.6$601 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600.77 | 132 | 57.6%76 W · 56 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Yes | 37c | 702$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$445.07 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f5…30bcbacked Yes | 37c | 687.49$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$431.4 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c8b…b3c3backed Yes | 37c | 520.5$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +170.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 47c | 403.03$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.09 | 105 | 33.3%35 W · 70 L | -10.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -43%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4caf…6de9backed Yes | 38c | 263.16$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.16 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Yes | 22c | 177.24$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.25 | 235 | 48.9%115 W · 120 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1867…92cabacked No | 63c | 158.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.96 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.8wins | -0.40per pick | 54cpaid | -77.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x939d…3b3cbacked Yes | 37c | 140$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.2 | 84 | 46.4%39 W · 45 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…e4f8backed Yes | 36c | 138.89$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.89 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +120.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0830…a3f0backed Yes | 36c | 111.11$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03de…4bfdbacked No | 64c | 111$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.04 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4de9…4ab1backed Yes | 33c | 109.99$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 38cpaid | +100.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Yes | 28c | 77.31$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.94 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed No | 56c | 75$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -3.0wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0655…faf8backed Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.07 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Yes | 36c | 69.22$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.22 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9318…a645backed Yes | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.97 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.31per pick | 41cpaid | +101.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x392a…6bbabacked Yes | 38c | 56.76$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.19 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…1a49backed Yes | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.05 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…8359backed Yes | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +170.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…0fedbacked No | 57c | 50.56$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.91 | 63 | 50.8%32 W · 31 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad28…770cbacked Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc995…25c2backed Yes | 36c | 41.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.67 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 37cpaid | +80.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa4f…8921backed Yes | 39c | 41.32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.32 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +32%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed No | 78c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 395 | 67.1%265 W · 130 L | +60.8wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Cincinnati win on 2025-11-08?this page
- Will Columbus Crew win on 2025-11-08?No won
- Will FC Cincinnati vs. Columbus Crew end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.