Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will AZ win on 2025-12-11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x83206ae1edb2f4d8bd9d8587b34d63823fab27f2c287601083c60398ffe2a0f7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,702
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,441
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,702 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 3c | 1,062$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.87 | 428 | 44.9%192 W · 236 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 12c | 463.32$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.57 | 848 | 50.8%431 W · 417 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf37…8b49backed No | 28c | 349.97$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.99 | 44 | 20.5%9 W · 35 L | -11.8wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xb72b…f4e0backed No | 30c | 336.97$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 71c | 269.68$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.47 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 71c | 227$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.83 | 318 | 49.4%157 W · 161 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0caf…abfebacked Yes | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 23c | 132$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.79 | 105 | 44.8%47 W · 58 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed Yes | 78c | 88.55$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.48 | 136 | 66.2%90 W · 46 L | +12.2wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9773…67e8backed No | 28c | 67$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.76 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed No | 31c | 62.03$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.01 | 379 | 26.1%99 W · 280 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a27…e7eebacked Yes | 72c | 41.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.26per pick | 57cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x76db…18fabacked Yes | 73c | 39.91$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…8248backed Yes | 71c | 36$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.44 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d19…0b39backed Yes | 72c | 35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1612…9dedbacked No | 29c | 35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -3.0wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x73c5…4997backed Yes | 72c | 32$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 73cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d00…a6f3backed Yes | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5a…ac03backed Yes | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will AZ win on 2025-12-11?this page
- Will FC Drita vs. AZ end in a draw?No won
- Will FC Drita win on 2025-12-11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.