Earnings · resolved market
Will WD-40 (WDFC) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8328fe4809abededdf34ec74091f94d88d12d882c9b8932fb1b2924be9a7ce40
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,905
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,094
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,905 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5ea9…894cbacked No | 28c | 5,307$1,501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,501.17 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +2.9wins | +0.29per pick | 61cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x04ac…c7b0backed Yes | 11c | 1,000$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$890 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.89per pick | 11cpaid | +809.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2455…a70fbacked Yes | 55c | 730$402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.5 | 32 | 87.5%28 W · 4 L | +12.8wins | +0.40per pick | 48cpaid | +94.9%equal weight | 75+0.22 edge/pick |
| 0x9e88…301cbacked Yes | 48c | 424.63$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.77 | 471 | 38.6%182 W · 289 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaebc…fa03backed No | 60c | 333.05$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 13c | 288$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.56 | 49 | 12.2%6 W · 43 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 69c | 199.99$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 674 | 42.7%288 W · 386 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fdc…5d91backed Yes | 66c | 188.46$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.46 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92cc…779dbacked No | 35c | 154.11$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b96…7f2dbacked Yes | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 71cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x270d…d850backed Yes | 73c | 123.97$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.97 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.24per pick | 60cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed Yes | 71c | 108$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.32 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 60cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked No | 29c | 108$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.32 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +44%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdad6…0d14backed Yes | 53c | 105.66$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f0f…4f31backed No | 29c | 101.35$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.35 | 356 | 35.1%125 W · 231 L | +17.1wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f61…c75abacked No | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1cf…9656backed No | 30c | 99.97$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.66 | 92 | 47.8%44 W · 48 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 54c | 71.31$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.8 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -3.9wins | -0.19per pick | 29cpaid | -83.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x05f6…b116backed No | 45c | 68.65$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8c…b2eebacked Yes | 48c | 59.21$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.82 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb33e…33b3backed No | 32c | 50.94$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b8f…3b86backed Yes | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 579 | 39%226 W · 353 L | -25.5wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee10…edc1backed No | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x767b…d88abacked Yes | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0e…4419backed Yes | 54c | 49.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 187 | 51.3%96 W · 91 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe71b…a957backed No | 31c | 44.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c28…1041backed No | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.86 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99ba…6391backed No | 28c | 39.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d21…df94backed No | 31c | 37.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6777…db04backed Yes | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +53.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9f3…6e01backed Yes | 64c | 28.24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.17 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +60.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x520c…c42dbacked Yes | 72c | 27.88$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.88 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5e8…75e4backed Yes | 73c | 27.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f76…f6f8backed Yes | 70c | 26.03$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 55c | 24.1$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 290 | 24.1%70 W · 220 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe381…3ba9backed Yes | 52c | 23.95$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 251 | 25.5%64 W · 187 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x980a…bb1bbacked Yes | 73c | 23.38$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.38 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b79…6f9dbacked Yes | 64c | 21.76$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.83 | 263 | 50.2%132 W · 131 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.