MLB · resolved market
Kansas City Royals vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x83383dcaf0db2931375cf6d78baef3273657b7d3f2f2cd68246bb0adc8030283
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,632
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,625
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,632 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 14c | 1,446$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.63 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 47c | 499.99$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c9b…a556backed Under | 53c | 471.7$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.7 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4328…11d2backed Under | 53c | 400$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188 | 67 | 49.3%33 W · 34 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd7…eac9backed Under | 53c | 347.78$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.46 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +3.1wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 47c | 328.07$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.19 | 650 | 50.3%327 W · 323 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 52c | 272$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.45 | 678 | 49.3%334 W · 344 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 6c | 246.23$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.77 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1489…9924backed Over | 47c | 235$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.45 | 185 | 53%98 W · 87 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76e4…febcbacked Over | 49c | 119.3$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 90 | 45.6%41 W · 49 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…8dbebacked Over | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 93 | 49.5%46 W · 47 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Over | 48c | 99.98$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.67 | 2,261 | 45.4%1,026 W · 1,235 L | +57.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 52c | 98.91$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.57 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf46d…aae7backed Under | 54c | 91.67$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.17 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Under | 51c | 71.73$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.15 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Over | 49c | 71.42$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 218 | 47.7%104 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca2d…39edbacked Over | 47c | 66$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.02 | 232 | 48.7%113 W · 119 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 46c | 58.74$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.02 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe832…7abbbacked Over | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.17per pick | 48cpaid | -38%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x529c…053ebacked Over | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25ed…3e98backed Over | 33c | 42.2$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 257 | 48.2%124 W · 133 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc01d…2e79backed Over | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | -5.1wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Under | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 509 | 49.5%252 W · 257 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x622b…5a4abacked Over | 47c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -2.8wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 47c | 24.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe33d…9512backed Under | 53c | 20.76$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.76 | 172 | 44.2%76 W · 96 L | -7.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Kansas City Royals vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5this page
- Kansas City Royals vs. Atlanta BravesAtlanta Braves won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)Atlanta Braves won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.