Tennis · resolved market
ITF M25 Idanha-a-Nova 2 Men: Tiago Cacao vs Goncalo Marques
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x833bdc98beacedcde9f8d3cd0ebde7c602f74d0a12fb2fd4d0170116bb250c6f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Goncalo Marquesof Tiago Cacao, Goncalo Marques
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,629
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,709
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,629 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Goncalo Marques | 44c | 1,183$517 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$665.94 | 11,325 | 43.4%4,912 W · 6,413 L | +18.6wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2903…9203backed Tiago Cacao | 69c | 668.67$461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$461.34 | 1,073 | 60.4%648 W · 425 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…ef3dbacked Tiago Cacao | 59c | 237$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.29 | 221 | 50.7%112 W · 109 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13f7…85d5backed Tiago Cacao | 14c | 205.42$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.14 | 1,252 | 38.8%486 W · 766 L | -23.0wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd32d…23b4backed Tiago Cacao | 22c | 200$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 79 | 53.2%42 W · 37 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb421…8856backed Goncalo Marques | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 1,773 | 48.6%861 W · 912 L | +28.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Tiago Cacao | 57c | 75.98$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.27 | 8,396 | 42.6%3,578 W · 4,818 L | -162.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9455…7defbacked Tiago Cacao | 69c | 72.46$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 941 | 49.5%466 W · 475 L | +17.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Goncalo Marques | 76c | 66$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.14 | 1,806 | 40.9%739 W · 1,067 L | -31.4wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2326…b627backed Goncalo Marques | 75c | 63.75$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.01 | 1,232 | 65.4%806 W · 426 L | +11.4wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6aca…e738backed Tiago Cacao | 24c | 56$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 105 | 62.9%66 W · 39 L | +10.6wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x40e9…494fbacked Tiago Cacao | 26c | 54.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 421 | 30.2%127 W · 294 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc72…cd13backed Tiago Cacao | 34c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 978 | 52%509 W · 469 L | +7.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe839…0a9dbacked Goncalo Marques | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 382 | 57.6%220 W · 162 L | +19.2wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Tiago Cacao | 69c | 29.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.29 | 7,745 | 50.6%3,916 W · 3,829 L | +93.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd32e…b577backed Goncalo Marques | 41c | 29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.11 | 383 | 59.8%229 W · 154 L | +24.9wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ad…5097backed Goncalo Marques | 56c | 21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.29 | 257 | 68.1%175 W · 82 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2f…5388backed Tiago Cacao | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bcd…c00fbacked Tiago Cacao | 69c | 18.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 99 | 55.6%55 W · 44 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.