Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 23°C on April 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x83661e811236e0cc92ff194db0b51d99698347e4230387a85a0deac9a01b52a2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,183
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,673
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,183 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x100a…c6cebacked No | 2c | 10,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 255 | 4.3%11 W · 244 L | +8.3wins | +0.03per pick | 1cpaid | +221.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 44c | 1,303$575 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$728.54 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x292a…5d78backed No | 5c | 348.37$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.27 | 93 | 33.3%31 W · 62 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -26%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 21c | 315.49$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.27 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2f…d9debacked No | 78c | 314.26$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6400…331abacked Yes | 67c | 253.22$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.67 | 424 | 69.1%293 W · 131 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 18c | 237.5$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.63 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed No | 7c | 212.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.35 | 328 | 18.3%60 W · 268 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 8c | 147.81$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.17 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6f0b…2116backed No | 17c | 136.04$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.17 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 14c | 122.92$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.44 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb95e…1a68backed No | 75c | 98.73$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.05 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 56c | 92.6$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.12 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6d54…da72backed No | 37c | 88.88$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 37cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8cf0…ab54backed Yes | 21c | 85.25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.75 | 163 | 20.2%33 W · 130 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88e2…d474backed No | 27c | 74.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 166 | 39.2%65 W · 101 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb185…48c1backed Yes | 21c | 71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.8 | 197 | 20.8%41 W · 156 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…4e36backed Yes | 75c | 54.93$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 197 | 72.6%143 W · 54 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe11d…44ecbacked No | 46c | 53.63$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.67 | 180 | 41.7%75 W · 105 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf5b…aea3backed No | 74c | 51.54$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.26 | 67 | 38.8%26 W · 41 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16d9…f0b0backed Yes | 57c | 50.81$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 286 | 48.3%138 W · 148 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19ad…2dbbbacked Yes | 27c | 46.2$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.54 | 106 | 45.3%48 W · 58 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7224…1b96backed Yes | 43c | 46.01$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.43 | 18 | 83.3%15 W · 3 L | +3.4wins | +0.19per pick | 64cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4fbc…186dbacked No | 73c | 43.28$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.79 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -6.3wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x54e0…b02cbacked No | 75c | 38.81$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.1 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 75cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes | 36c | 37.58$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.9 | 368 | 19.6%72 W · 296 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2e…c9e1backed No | 42c | 34.84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 204 | 31.9%65 W · 139 L | -14.5wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 37c | 34.73$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.68 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d47…10b4backed No | 52c | 28.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.71 | 223 | 44.8%100 W · 123 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10a4…d3d1backed No | 53c | 27.16$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 43c | 23.81$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3b7…b30abacked No | 72c | 21.6$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.53 | 54 | 74.1%40 W · 14 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 71c | 20.23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66c2…85f4backed No | 75c | 18.53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +106.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 23°C on April 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 24°C on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C or higher on April 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.