Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C or higher on April 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x46c485af7febf28cf0d5d3ae5410764fb4ed80eb39023cbf7b75cb6e29f8fa58
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,120
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,733
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,120 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8842…dfa7backed Yes | 0c | 5,402$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 452 | 36.5%165 W · 287 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 60c | 957.74$577 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$576.81 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 4c | 800$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 46c | 525.96$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.94 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 44c | 510.35$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.42 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed22…6450backed Yes | 43c | 485.78$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.77 | 431 | 39.2%169 W · 262 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 3c | 399.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd1…d384backed Yes | 6c | 349.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 148 | 6.8%10 W · 138 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Yes | 8c | 269.47$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.16 | 336 | 20.2%68 W · 268 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed No | 50c | 259.19$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.85 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 41c | 235.36$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.11 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bc1…5f7bbacked No | 46c | 204.86$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.94 | 105 | 69.5%73 W · 32 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92c9…c500backed No | 50c | 193.37$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.44 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 8c | 150.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.11 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed No | 57c | 150.28$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.3 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed No | 69c | 140.76$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.88 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb185…48c1backed No | 48c | 135.55$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.59 | 197 | 20.8%41 W · 156 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 57c | 132.29$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.81 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 37c | 129.38$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.58 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8cf0…ab54backed No | 49c | 126.99$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.44 | 163 | 20.2%33 W · 130 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 33c | 91.29$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.38 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 38c | 89.48$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.58 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked No | 61c | 85.44$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.92 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 62c | 78.48$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.82 | 271 | 67.2%182 W · 89 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x859c…38e4backed No | 41c | 78.24$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.9 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 50c | 70$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b7…91f8backed No | 57c | 69.64$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.71 | 77 | 77.9%60 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 75cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 64c | 66$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.76 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f46…77e8backed No | 42c | 58.33$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.08 | 126 | 25.4%32 W · 94 L | +9.0wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 54c | 58.08$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.68 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 54c | 56.16$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 43c | 55.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.27 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c1…c53fbacked No | 51c | 52.96$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.72 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc4…cad5backed No | 35c | 51.54$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.61 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb5d8…9dd0backed Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 123 | 30.1%37 W · 86 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf5b…aea3backed Yes | 38c | 48.93$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.59 | 67 | 38.8%26 W · 41 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x579a…9908backed No | 52c | 47.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.04 | 121 | 54.5%66 W · 55 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d43…4124backed Yes | 25c | 47.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66c2…85f4backed Yes | 39c | 46.29$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.01 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +106.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd728…97a9backed Yes | 44c | 42.74$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.89 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked No | 41c | 42.1$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.02 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4667…20f2backed Yes | 44c | 40.24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.69 | 41 | 17.1%7 W · 34 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2095…a45abacked Yes | 39c | 37.92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a09…263dbacked No | 56c | 34.27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.15 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34c9…d916backed No | 48c | 32.61$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +18%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 49c | 29.53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.47 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f27…2dfcbacked Yes | 42c | 29.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c1…bec3backed Yes | 44c | 28.65$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.73 | 116 | 44%51 W · 65 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed No | 53c | 28.29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ef…05a3backed Yes | 58c | 26.91$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -3.0wins | -0.21per pick | 64cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcaa2…15eabacked No | 56c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 141 | 35.5%50 W · 91 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7224…1b96backed No | 52c | 24.51$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.81 | 18 | 83.3%15 W · 3 L | +3.4wins | +0.19per pick | 64cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7e…c08ebacked No | 58c | 22.92$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.52 | 570 | 38.1%217 W · 353 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 64c | 22.13$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 65c | 21.79$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.58 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae3…3401backed Yes | 72c | 19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 274 | 63.9%175 W · 99 L | -15.0wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d54…da72backed No | 74c | 17.08$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.42 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 37cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C or higher on April 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 23°C on April 7?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 24°C on April 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.