Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x836a16cd57c0de65bcc9b1b7211724c3839a09ba38778a214d382c7f82fbbd76
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,414
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,616
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,414 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x726e…aafbbacked No | 65c | 399.56$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.7 | 232 | 69%160 W · 72 L | +23.7wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 33c | 234.82$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.48 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa5c…a240backed No | 66c | 199.77$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.32 | 195 | 52.8%103 W · 92 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 63c | 163.16$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.16 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ad…c303backed No | 63c | 150.74$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.47 | 31 | 77.4%24 W · 7 L | +4.8wins | +0.15per pick | 62cpaid | +25%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9e…c96bbacked Yes | 42c | 147.7$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.03 | 413 | 31%128 W · 285 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 43c | 144$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.92 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 35c | 142.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.72 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 18c | 122.92$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.56 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 43c | 113.96$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.82 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 40c | 104.84$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.67 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 28c | 100.55$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.68 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 38c | 99.82$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.33 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 10c | 96$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 57c | 92.16$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.63 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 14c | 88.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba9…9c5bbacked No | 66c | 78.35$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.95 | 101 | 33.7%34 W · 67 L | -10.9wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 63c | 71.39$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.36 | 399 | 68.9%275 W · 124 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 69c | 67$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.91 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5239…4134backed No | 66c | 66.39$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.58 | 84 | 66.7%56 W · 28 L | +9.7wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +36%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7b47…f1f5backed Yes | 34c | 59.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.39 | 244 | 34.4%84 W · 160 L | +10.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcca3…7450backed Yes | 48c | 53.32$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.82 | 426 | 43.2%184 W · 242 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 39c | 52.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.49 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…fbebbacked No | 64c | 52.73$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.98 | 132 | 74.2%98 W · 34 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94ae…d801backed Yes | 44c | 52.63$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.21 | 139 | 50.4%70 W · 69 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed No | 67c | 51.93$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.32 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc10b…96d5backed Yes | 42c | 47.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.09 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 67c | 46.75$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 65c | 45$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.58 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 55c | 36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b9…3afcbacked Yes | 37c | 35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 204 | 38.7%79 W · 125 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed No | 77c | 34$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.82 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb395…522bbacked Yes | 41c | 33.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.83 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 61c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 50c | 32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 59c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 66c | 22.4$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.62 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 67c | 22.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50b1…0793backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 436 | 63.5%277 W · 159 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…b4d7backed No | 76c | 19.6$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.7 | 103 | 60.2%62 W · 41 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 80c | 18.58$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.73 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2af3…bcb4backed No | 61c | 17.04$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.58 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15da…4e2abacked No | 59c | 16.95$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.88 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.