Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 20°C on April 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x83992d23520012f66775d093b9987b3db37a563d24189870fcf126bcb3a15d0e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,021
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,795
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,021 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x765f…1508backed Yes | 59c | 438.37$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.39 | 330 | 18.8%62 W · 268 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed No | 9c | 180.44$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 343 | 19.5%67 W · 276 L | +22.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b6…4464backed No | 70c | 179.69$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe32…a0e7backed Yes | 78c | 178.65$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.57 | 65 | 29.2%19 W · 46 L | -9.3wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b1…ab63backed Yes | 49c | 134.46$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.97 | 385 | 47.5%183 W · 202 L | +16.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 22c | 112.4$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.59 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76fa…3ff4backed No | 10c | 109.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 16c | 109.49$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.36 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce4b…bb90backed No | 68c | 101.72$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.29 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa05a…cc49backed No | 63c | 88.76$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 19c | 84.45$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.35 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 56c | 71.77$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.18 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 33c | 69.95$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.69 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e24…7379backed Yes | 19c | 69.7$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.7 | 456 | 19.1%87 W · 369 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 33c | 69.56$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.71 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5499…cf6dbacked Yes | 32c | 58.42$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.98 | 250 | 37.6%94 W · 156 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe471…6604backed Yes | 54c | 53$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.38 | 128 | 56.3%72 W · 56 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd83…8dbcbacked No | 32c | 51.79$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.48 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1348…7037backed Yes | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 176 | 65.9%116 W · 60 L | +12.7wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 30c | 49.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.89 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 74c | 48.54$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.02 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe509…7387backed Yes | 22c | 48.38$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.73 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fd0…0e22backed Yes | 37c | 47.61$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.86 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | -3.9wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 68c | 42.83$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.68 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4973…5527backed Yes | 77c | 26.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.96 | 300 | 46.7%140 W · 160 L | -8.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 69c | 26.28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.24 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8c…e802backed Yes | 71c | 26.24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.63 | 93 | 38.7%36 W · 57 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 80c | 23.82$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.05 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7515…0f90backed No | 58c | 17.29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 159 | 54.7%87 W · 72 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…8ca0backed Yes | 70c | 14.55$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.37 | 79 | 69.6%55 W · 24 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked No | 79c | 13.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 20°C on April 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 19°C or below on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 21°C on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C on April 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.