Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: paiN Gaming vs AVULUS - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x840099a6b62bddd03fcf7c0c30063754fc4b3a5e474228cf9365ffd19c9b4b77
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- paiN Gamingof paiN Gaming, AVULUS
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,578
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,578 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7a46…ab25backed paiN Gaming | 67c | 2,020$1,357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$663 | 121 | 56.2%68 W · 53 L | +7.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed AVULUS | 1c | 1,100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 616 | 9.7%60 W · 556 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00a1…5062backed AVULUS | 34c | 893.34$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 213 | 46.5%99 W · 114 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed paiN Gaming | 71c | 619.11$437 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.59 | 1,164 | 47.2%549 W · 615 L | -29.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed paiN Gaming | 68c | 604.41$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.7 | 1,272 | 45%572 W · 700 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c20…41b3backed AVULUS | 6c | 499.98$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 173 | 23.1%40 W · 133 L | -11.7wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec54…c7b2backed AVULUS | 32c | 491.22$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.25 | 156 | 50.6%79 W · 77 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed AVULUS | 27c | 425.42$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.8 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5a…bf71backed AVULUS | 31c | 280.92$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.15 | 466 | 49.8%232 W · 234 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2775…3652backed AVULUS | 27c | 168.18$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.41 | 330 | 41.8%138 W · 192 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked AVULUS | 34c | 146.3$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.74 | 738 | 41.7%308 W · 430 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf456…3855backed AVULUS | 24c | 143.94$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 173 | 37.6%65 W · 108 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed paiN Gaming | 61c | 117.18$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.61 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66ed…d321backed AVULUS | 12c | 90.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 340 | 45.9%156 W · 184 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed paiN Gaming | 69c | 70.71$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.73 | 666 | 62.2%414 W · 252 L | +60.2wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xff93…91bfbacked paiN Gaming | 77c | 49.71$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.43 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked paiN Gaming | 70c | 30.1$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed paiN Gaming | 68c | 24.78$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.93 | 1,013 | 45.5%461 W · 552 L | -46.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x955f…2e25backed paiN Gaming | 67c | 15.22$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.02 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: paiN Gaming vs AVULUS - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: paiN Gaming vs AVULUS (BO3) - CCT PlayoffspaiN Gaming won
- Dota 2: paiN Gaming vs AVULUS - Game 1 WinnerpaiN Gaming won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.