Asian League · resolved market
Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. Vissel Kōbe: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x840caa5bd31d364838b0acbdbfded39a1aa1e0860ceb849b3b03cfcc4c856f30
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,161
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,616
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,161 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf658…655ebacked Under | 58c | 3,258$1,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,357.53 | 182 | 57.1%104 W · 78 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e62…f6ffbacked Over | 49c | 3,070$1,496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,495.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc181…6e97backed Under | 67c | 2,479$1,656 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$822.71 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 40c | 2,334$926 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$925.52 | 2,522 | 42.3%1,067 W · 1,455 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 54c | 2,011$1,088 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$922.78 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09d4…5f81backed Over | 52c | 1,300$673 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$672.99 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9a…a9a8backed Under | 52c | 700$364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336 | 58 | 60.3%35 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Over | 28c | 615.63$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.29 | 57 | 24.6%14 W · 43 L | -7.8wins | -0.14per pick | 38cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Over | 49c | 514.15$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.93 | 399 | 54.6%218 W · 181 L | +16.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 61c | 489.96$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.49 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Over | 42c | 461.76$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.05 | 218 | 30.7%67 W · 151 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 50c | 370.61$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.3 | 1,110 | 49.5%549 W · 561 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…d743backed Over | 30c | 333.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 98 | 24.5%24 W · 74 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb408…e303backed Under | 60c | 333.33$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.33 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Over | 44c | 325.69$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.5 | 76 | 28.9%22 W · 54 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 67c | 301.8$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.89 | 2,491 | 40%997 W · 1,494 L | -18.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked Over | 56c | 300$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 197 | 53.8%106 W · 91 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe49d…ff91backed Under | 51c | 296.5$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 52c | 295.76$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.76 | 1,063 | 42%446 W · 617 L | -12.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe843…0699backed Under | 41c | 221$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.39 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -37%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa54d…deb8backed Under | 55c | 200$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 50c | 183.51$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.76 | 1,764 | 50.2%886 W · 878 L | +31.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e1…f17fbacked Under | 55c | 158.18$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.18 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 52c | 150.47$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.21 | 1,221 | 50.2%613 W · 608 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18b6…babfbacked Under | 51c | 147.06$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.06 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x134c…eeefbacked Over | 43c | 116.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 127 | 42.5%54 W · 73 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ff…abd0backed Under | 51c | 114.16$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.94 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…1212backed Over | 49c | 107.14$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 257 | 42%108 W · 149 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d63…aa21backed Over | 35c | 106.63$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c74…0d16backed Over | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.96 | 91 | 52.7%48 W · 43 L | +6.5wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x02bc…1fd2backed Under | 51c | 99.99$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 340 | 50.9%173 W · 167 L | +19.3wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4148…4397backed Over | 45c | 87.22$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.55 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8969…2cabbacked Over | 47c | 85.11$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94d8…8835backed Under | 54c | 70.37$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.37 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Under | 51c | 60$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 175 | 45.7%80 W · 95 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89b9…118ebacked Under | 51c | 60$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 98 | 59.2%58 W · 40 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a76…b30fbacked Over | 49c | 59.18$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 55 | 56.4%31 W · 24 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Over | 45c | 55.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 387 | 37.5%145 W · 242 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb9b…b48dbacked Under | 62c | 48.39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Under | 52c | 48$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.04 | 155 | 49%76 W · 79 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x504b…b939backed Under | 75c | 45.33$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.33 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +14%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…50febacked Over | 60c | 41.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Under | 52c | 40.16$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.15 | 478 | 60.3%288 W · 190 L | +15.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb27b…5d6ebacked Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -22%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa063…338fbacked Over | 40c | 38.64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.33 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.9wins | -0.27per pick | 54cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x35d1…1f70backed Under | 52c | 38.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 208 | 60.1%125 W · 83 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc1c…2bf2backed Under | 58c | 38$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.88 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9f…b0d4backed Over | 49c | 37.65$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82ad…9a2bbacked Under | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +65.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 34c | 32.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 324 | 57.1%185 W · 139 L | +12.7wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0045…9007backed Over | 48c | 29.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 71 | 57.7%41 W · 30 L | +5.8wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa85b…eb0ebacked Under | 52c | 28.77$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.81 | 198 | 56.1%111 W · 87 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcfe…4b94backed Over | 41c | 26.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9132…6607backed Over | 47c | 25.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83de…1786backed Over | 46c | 25.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddc…e874backed Over | 42c | 25.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 108 | 43.5%47 W · 61 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x106f…b8eebacked Over | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -32%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23bc…5487backed Under | 52c | 24.9$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.03 | 107 | 52.3%56 W · 51 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Over | 47c | 23.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 143 | 51.7%74 W · 69 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb66c…a0f5backed Under | 53c | 23.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.97 | 154 | 55.8%86 W · 68 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Under | 52c | 20.07$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 390 | 58.2%227 W · 163 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26c0…87dfbacked Under | 52c | 19.29$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.26 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. Vissel Kōbe: O/U 2.5this page
- Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. Vissel Kōbe: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. Vissel Kōbe: O/U 1.5Over won
- Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. Vissel Kōbe: O/U 3.5Under won
- Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. Vissel Kōbe: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Sanfrecce Hiroshima (-2.5)Vissel Kōbe won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.