Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Execration - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x840ceec6b36da1f58b526497ded462a8eb1608c4b836872de39927346c3d525d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Xtreme Gamingof Xtreme Gaming, Execration
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,409
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,554
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,409 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x74ef…1ac6backed Xtreme Gaming | 79c | 4,706$3,730 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$975.83 | 476 | 60.7%289 W · 187 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdcfe…44b5backed Execration | 21c | 2,483$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$509.7 | 328 | 54.9%180 W · 148 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x755d…37e7backed Xtreme Gaming | 80c | 2,373$1,888 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$485.13 | 65 | 66.2%43 W · 22 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Execration | 21c | 1,965$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$404.85 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Execration | 16c | 1,460$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.96 | 1,521 | 37.9%576 W · 945 L | -57.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f9…bff5backed Execration | 20c | 1,198$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.44 | 209 | 49.3%103 W · 106 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0e3…dd00backed Execration | 10c | 999.97$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccf5…42f2backed Execration | 27c | 935.7$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.98 | 574 | 55.4%318 W · 256 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed Execration | 16c | 803.65$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.15 | 1,577 | 43.9%692 W · 885 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58f1…7032backed Xtreme Gaming | 73c | 500$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 295 | 50.2%148 W · 147 L | +8.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Execration | 17c | 486$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.12 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x376f…5a0ebacked Xtreme Gaming | 78c | 257.3$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.3 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe64b…3499backed Xtreme Gaming | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae1…1e7ebacked Xtreme Gaming | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 329 | 51.7%170 W · 159 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81b9…2ea7backed Execration | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bef…be32backed Execration | 26c | 70.15$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 134 | 49.3%66 W · 68 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9120…ae70backed Xtreme Gaming | 79c | 53.89$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.42 | 210 | 62.4%131 W · 79 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Execration | 21c | 53.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 181 | 43.6%79 W · 102 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4287…3d5ebacked Execration | 25c | 44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 83 | 42.2%35 W · 48 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec41…1134backed Xtreme Gaming | 75c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 158 | 54.4%86 W · 72 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Execration - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Execration (BO2) - DreamLeague Stage 1 Group BXtreme Gaming won
- Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Execration - Game 1 WinnerXtreme Gaming won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.