Tennis · resolved market
ITF Fano: Niccolo Catini vs Iiro Vasa
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8456a9f0733672f7e5dc8176bfb381470ca7781a101fcc82f48f91801fd75f0c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Niccolo Catiniof Niccolo Catini, Iiro Vasa
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,110
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,061
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,110 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Niccolo Catini | 79c | 3,720$2,926 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$793.7 | 11,666 | 43.4%5,059 W · 6,607 L | +22.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Niccolo Catini | 53c | 2,912$1,554 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,357.73 | 4,341 | 52.3%2,271 W · 2,070 L | +63.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Iiro Vasa | 43c | 1,697$735 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$734.85 | 6,574 | 46.2%3,037 W · 3,537 L | -45.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef29…2f1ebacked Iiro Vasa | 20c | 1,500$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1,131 | 45.4%514 W · 617 L | -34.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bb…3250backed Iiro Vasa | 24c | 1,069$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.53 | 249 | 52.2%130 W · 119 L | +9.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Iiro Vasa | 50c | 1,055$532 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$532.39 | 8,702 | 42.6%3,708 W · 4,994 L | -165.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7462…3ac3backed Iiro Vasa | 21c | 920.83$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.2 | 1,723 | 50.1%863 W · 860 L | +29.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed Iiro Vasa | 22c | 267.86$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2,639 | 46.4%1,224 W · 1,415 L | +19.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Iiro Vasa | 24c | 187.5$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 3,457 | 38.9%1,345 W · 2,112 L | -15.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3d…4d49backed Iiro Vasa | 23c | 156$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.88 | 255 | 46.7%119 W · 136 L | -11.8wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Iiro Vasa | 44c | 130.99$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.77 | 1,878 | 53.2%1,000 W · 878 L | +30.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Iiro Vasa | 33c | 89.04$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.81 | 6,792 | 36.9%2,505 W · 4,287 L | -98.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5061…4b02backed Niccolo Catini | 56c | 71.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.43 | 66 | 63.6%42 W · 24 L | +9.9wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +46.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0fd9…039bbacked Iiro Vasa | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,009 | 38.3%386 W · 623 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb663…f135backed Iiro Vasa | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 577 | 36.7%212 W · 365 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed Niccolo Catini | 75c | 31$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 433 | 59.6%258 W · 175 L | +26.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a60…7b81backed Niccolo Catini | 54c | 28.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.91 | 183 | 56.3%103 W · 80 L | +7.1wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.