Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Michigan State Spartans (-9.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x846f57ae57e279731bbe68964efa21b6f8bdce5912b8765e445be934990a4e22
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Ohio State Buckeyesof Michigan State Spartans, Ohio State Buckeyes
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,464
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,462
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,464 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe584…e6e2backed Michigan State Spartans | 55c | 2,723$1,489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,488.86 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Ohio State Buckeyes | 46c | 2,172$993 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,179.41 | 2,896 | 50%1,448 W · 1,448 L | +71.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d7a…b22fbacked Ohio State Buckeyes | 48c | 1,896$903 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$992.75 | 232 | 43.5%101 W · 131 L | -15.7wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x05b9…2adfbacked Michigan State Spartans | 54c | 1,836$991 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$991.31 | 572 | 48.1%275 W · 297 L | -27.3wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57e9…df05backed Michigan State Spartans | 55c | 1,832$1,016 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,016.17 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Ohio State Buckeyes | 45c | 1,138$513 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$625.11 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff81…44c9backed Michigan State Spartans | 54c | 925$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.5 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | -5.7wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8461…c6e4backed Michigan State Spartans | 55c | 630.85$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.97 | 182 | 45.1%82 W · 100 L | -15.9wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xda31…8e56backed Michigan State Spartans | 53c | 325$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.25 | 81 | 38.3%31 W · 50 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked Ohio State Buckeyes | 48c | 200$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 1,260 | 43.3%545 W · 715 L | +34.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Ohio State Buckeyes | 63c | 131.62$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.7 | 2,254 | 42.2%951 W · 1,303 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f9…8d2dbacked Michigan State Spartans | 37c | 130.55$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.3 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +2.7wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Michigan State Spartans | 54c | 97.57$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.9 | 3,905 | 58.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L | +165.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83ea…c2efbacked Michigan State Spartans | 54c | 91.79$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.57 | 230 | 54.3%125 W · 105 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Ohio State Buckeyes | 45c | 78$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.9 | 505 | 48.9%247 W · 258 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27e9…afc4backed Ohio State Buckeyes | 47c | 73.33$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6da…77acbacked Ohio State Buckeyes | 47c | 61.88$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Ohio State Buckeyes | 70c | 56.89$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.24 | 848 | 54.5%462 W · 386 L | +32.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4855…6a41backed Michigan State Spartans | 52c | 56.87$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.74 | 326 | 52.8%172 W · 154 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cec…5326backed Ohio State Buckeyes | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 852 | 48.8%416 W · 436 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Ohio State Buckeyes | 46c | 48.6$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.25 | 922 | 46%424 W · 498 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Ohio State Buckeyes | 46c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 998 | 48.4%483 W · 515 L | -8.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80df…87fcbacked Ohio State Buckeyes | 46c | 38.71$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.9 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Ohio State Buckeyes | 48c | 22.42$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.66 | 1,296 | 45.1%584 W · 712 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c6…9947backed Michigan State Spartans | 52c | 22.23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Ohio State Buckeyes | 46c | 21.76$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 1,249 | 16.4%205 W · 1,044 L | -189.4wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Michigan State Spartans (-9.5)this page
- Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Michigan State SpartansMichigan State Spartans won
- Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Michigan State Spartans: O/U 145.5Under won
- Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Michigan State Spartans: O/U 146.5Under won
- Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Michigan State Spartans: O/U 147.5Under won
- Spread: Michigan State Spartans (-10.5)Ohio State Buckeyes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.