Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Michigan State Spartans (-10.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xca2261a987b19c4c4d09d43ef2cfc570b079dcb32d8cab483c4326d2578f3ed2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Ohio State Buckeyesof Michigan State Spartans, Ohio State Buckeyes
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $59,053
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,493
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $59,053 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7b47…d615backed Ohio State Buckeyes | 52c | 16,851$8,722 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,129.01 | 740 | 51.5%381 W · 359 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabb8…bba3backed Michigan State Spartans | 51c | 16,564$8,388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,387.66 | 243 | 51.4%125 W · 118 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Michigan State Spartans | 9c | 10,023$902 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$902.08 | 906 | 45.4%411 W · 495 L | +9.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Ohio State Buckeyes | 50c | 7,645$3,789 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,856.09 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1a…0df6backed Michigan State Spartans | 48c | 5,000$2,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,400 | 106 | 48.1%51 W · 55 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aba…4961backed Michigan State Spartans | 9c | 4,986$449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$448.71 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -2.8wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Michigan State Spartans | 49c | 3,335$1,634 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,634.17 | 277 | 55.2%153 W · 124 L | +19.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x05b9…2adfbacked Ohio State Buckeyes | 53c | 1,880$991 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$888.77 | 572 | 48.1%275 W · 297 L | -27.3wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Michigan State Spartans | 9c | 1,451$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.77 | 4,382 | 40.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L | +23.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Michigan State Spartans | 48c | 1,111$533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$533.28 | 2,687 | 48.5%1,303 W · 1,384 L | +4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe584…e6e2backed Michigan State Spartans | 50c | 986.87$493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$493.43 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8461…c6e4backed Ohio State Buckeyes | 53c | 651.75$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.8 | 182 | 45.1%82 W · 100 L | -15.9wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x44f0…432cbacked Michigan State Spartans | 48c | 602.44$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.17 | 754 | 47.1%355 W · 399 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35f9…e09dbacked Ohio State Buckeyes | 52c | 541.38$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.86 | 62 | 35.5%22 W · 40 L | -4.5wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -28%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Michigan State Spartans | 50c | 474.25$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.9 | 794 | 48.9%388 W · 406 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9de4…7f2ebacked Ohio State Buckeyes | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 160 | 54.4%87 W · 73 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Michigan State Spartans | 47c | 399$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.53 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc949…fa93backed Michigan State Spartans | 49c | 335.88$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.58 | 185 | 48.6%90 W · 95 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21df…fdbcbacked Ohio State Buckeyes | 51c | 318.5$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.07 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5c3…9792backed Michigan State Spartans | 50c | 262.27$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.52 | 270 | 55.6%150 W · 120 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Michigan State Spartans | 49c | 132.72$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.52 | 2,896 | 50%1,448 W · 1,448 L | +71.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73a2…3b68backed Michigan State Spartans | 9c | 129.63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 334 | 45.5%152 W · 182 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Michigan State Spartans | 48c | 111.1$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.33 | 1,296 | 45.1%584 W · 712 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Michigan State Spartans | 46c | 108.69$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4,552 | 50.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L | -36.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…2bc3backed Ohio State Buckeyes | 51c | 99.13$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.57 | 214 | 55.6%119 W · 95 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabf6…129dbacked Ohio State Buckeyes | 51c | 97.18$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.62 | 121 | 53.7%65 W · 56 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Michigan State Spartans | 48c | 73$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.04 | 505 | 48.9%247 W · 258 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1413…4bddbacked Ohio State Buckeyes | 52c | 68.63$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.94 | 18 | 88.9%16 W · 2 L | +3.2wins | +0.18per pick | 71cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d6…e952backed Michigan State Spartans | 49c | 50.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.78 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc25a…f243backed Michigan State Spartans | 52c | 45.73$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.78 | 37 | 86.5%32 W · 5 L | +6.0wins | +0.16per pick | 70cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Ohio State Buckeyes | 47c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.37 | 3,905 | 58.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L | +165.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80df…87fcbacked Michigan State Spartans | 46c | 34.4$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.82 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Ohio State Buckeyes | 56c | 30.66$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.63 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Michigan State Spartans (-10.5)this page
- Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Michigan State SpartansMichigan State Spartans won
- Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Michigan State Spartans: O/U 145.5Under won
- Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Michigan State Spartans: O/U 146.5Under won
- Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Michigan State Spartans: O/U 147.5Under won
- Spread: Michigan State Spartans (-9.5)Ohio State Buckeyes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.