MLB · resolved market
Washington Nationals vs. St. Louis Cardinals
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x848400773547967af3cd43a12767fcb32ede76b5ba1971a34fc603880fc6adf8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- St. Louis Cardinalsof Washington Nationals, St. Louis Cardinals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,354
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,354 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x450b…11d7backed St. Louis Cardinals | 50c | 280$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 126 | 55.6%70 W · 56 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…f8d8backed Washington Nationals | 50c | 262.38$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.19 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked Washington Nationals | 50c | 256$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128 | 149 | 53%79 W · 70 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Washington Nationals | 49c | 241.67$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.15 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed St. Louis Cardinals | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 1,301 | 50.2%653 W · 648 L | +19.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x983a…ac6bbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 26 | 73.1%19 W · 7 L | +6.4wins | +0.25per pick | 48cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x0273…1867backed St. Louis Cardinals | 52c | 99.43$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.43 | 293 | 44.7%131 W · 162 L | +13.0wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed St. Louis Cardinals | 50c | 88$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 352 | 40.3%142 W · 210 L | -23.5wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked Washington Nationals | 48c | 65.38$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.38 | 3,303 | 46.3%1,528 W · 1,775 L | +22.6wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x348f…a206backed St. Louis Cardinals | 52c | 65.38$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.38 | 62 | 54.8%34 W · 28 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Washington Nationals | 46c | 57.9$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.73 | 72 | 47.2%34 W · 38 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed St. Louis Cardinals | 50c | 54$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 509 | 49.5%252 W · 257 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf16…9c6fbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 52c | 49.79$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.8 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78d9…70f6backed St. Louis Cardinals | 54c | 48.11$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.13 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +61.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Washington Nationals | 55c | 47.8$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.23 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Washington Nationals | 48c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 1,928 | 17.2%331 W · 1,597 L | -320.9wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x8390…3773backed St. Louis Cardinals | 44c | 36.67$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.54 | 83 | 50.6%42 W · 41 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Washington Nationals | 46c | 30.91$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.17 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8adc…ceafbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 228 | 53.5%122 W · 106 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.